TD Cowen Analyzes Freight Market Downturn and Future Trends

TD Cowen Analyzes Freight Market Downturn and Future Trends

TD Cowen Managing Director Jason Seidl provides an in-depth analysis of the current freight market, highlighting the trucking industry's longest downturn. However, he notes positive momentum in industrial data. The analysis delves into the impact of tariffs, nearshoring, and AI, offering insights into the less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload (TL) market outlook. This piece aims to help businesses understand market dynamics and develop effective strategies to navigate the current environment. It offers a valuable perspective on the factors shaping the freight industry's future.

01/28/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Rail Freight Growth Uneven As Carloads Rise Intermodal Falls

US Rail Freight Growth Uneven As Carloads Rise Intermodal Falls

The latest US rail freight data reveals a year-over-year increase in carload traffic, driven by strong demand for nonmetallic minerals, coal, and motor vehicle parts. However, intermodal container and trailer volumes declined year-over-year, reflecting easing supply chain bottlenecks and cooling consumer demand. Overall North American rail freight volumes show a similar diverging trend. Moving forward, railway companies need to improve operational efficiency and expand their business areas to address challenges and seize opportunities.

01/28/2026 Logistics
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US Rail Freight Demand Slows in Early February

US Rail Freight Demand Slows in Early February

According to the Association of American Railroads, U.S. rail freight and intermodal traffic both declined year-over-year for the week ending February 4th. Carload traffic saw a slight decrease, although commodities like automobiles and parts experienced growth. Intermodal volume continued its downward trend, reflecting weak consumer demand. Year-to-date figures are mixed, with North America performing slightly better overall, and Mexican railways demonstrating strong growth. Multiple factors are at play, making the future trend uncertain.

01/28/2026 Logistics
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Strong Consumer Spending Fails to Boost Freight Demand

Strong Consumer Spending Fails to Boost Freight Demand

Armada's Mr. Prather pointed out at the SMC3 J meeting that the freight market can sometimes be disconnected from the broader macroeconomy. Changes in consumption patterns and optimized inventory management strategies are potential drivers of this phenomenon. Businesses need a deep understanding of different industry dynamics. Freight companies should also innovate their service models to adapt to these shifts and better serve the evolving needs of their customers. This requires a proactive approach to understanding and responding to the factors influencing freight demand.

01/28/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Services Sector Slows in September but Remains Resilient

US Services Sector Slows in September but Remains Resilient

U.S. non-manufacturing activity moderated slightly in September, but the NMI index remained above the expansion threshold, marking 116 consecutive months of growth. Thirteen industries expanded, while employment growth slowed. Imports and exports presented a mixed picture. Experts suggest there's no need for excessive concern, emphasizing the importance of monitoring trade and employment. They anticipate growth in the fourth quarter.

01/28/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Tariff Extension Rattles Global Supply Chains

US Tariff Extension Rattles Global Supply Chains

The extension of the US reciprocal tariff suspension to August 1st has drawn global attention to supply chains. This article delves into the tariff logic of the Trump administration, analyzing the underlying dynamics and risks of the extension. It explores how businesses can cope with the uncertainties brought about by tariff policies, emphasizing the importance of cost control, risk management, and sustainable development.

01/29/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Trucking Volumes Jump in August Amid Hurricane Demand

US Trucking Volumes Jump in August Amid Hurricane Demand

Data from the American Trucking Associations shows a significant increase in U.S. trucking volume in August, with strong month-over-month and year-over-year performance. Factors such as pre-hurricane preparations, increased port throughput, and lower inventory levels contributed to this growth. However, the industry continues to face challenges including tight capacity and fluctuating fuel prices. A cautiously optimistic outlook is warranted for future development.

01/29/2026 Logistics
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US Services Sector Expands Steadily in September

US Services Sector Expands Steadily in September

The September ISM Non-Manufacturing report shows the NMI index slightly decreased to 58.6, but remains well above the expansion threshold, indicating 56 consecutive months of growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The PMI index is above the 12-month average, suggesting a long-term growth trend. Analysis should focus on sub-indexes such as new orders, employment, and prices, as well as geopolitical factors like interest rates and inflation. A cautiously optimistic outlook is maintained for the future development of the non-manufacturing sector.

01/28/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Retail Growth Stalls Amid Structural Challenges

US Retail Growth Stalls Amid Structural Challenges

U.S. retail sales edged up slightly in June, but the recovery remains weak, hampered by high oil prices, a sluggish housing market, and stagnant job growth. Experts advise retail businesses to refine operations, embrace change, and strengthen supply chain management. Paying close attention to macroeconomic trends is also crucial for navigating these challenges.

01/27/2026 Logistics
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Global Air Cargo Growth Slows Amid Trade Tensions

Global Air Cargo Growth Slows Amid Trade Tensions

IATA data reveals sluggish growth in the global air cargo market, impacted by weak global trade and rising protectionism. Asia-Pacific and the Middle East demonstrate relatively better performance, while Europe, the Americas, and Africa face declines. The industry is urging the dismantling of trade barriers and embracing digital transformation to address these challenges.

01/27/2026 Logistics
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