TD Cowen Analyzes Freight Market Downturn and Future Trends

TD Cowen Analyzes Freight Market Downturn and Future Trends

TD Cowen Managing Director Jason Seidl provides an in-depth analysis of the current freight market, highlighting the trucking industry's longest downturn. However, he notes positive momentum in industrial data. The analysis delves into the impact of tariffs, nearshoring, and AI, offering insights into the less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload (TL) market outlook. This piece aims to help businesses understand market dynamics and develop effective strategies to navigate the current environment. It offers a valuable perspective on the factors shaping the freight industry's future.

01/28/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Rail Freight Growth Uneven As Carloads Rise Intermodal Falls

US Rail Freight Growth Uneven As Carloads Rise Intermodal Falls

The latest US rail freight data reveals a year-over-year increase in carload traffic, driven by strong demand for nonmetallic minerals, coal, and motor vehicle parts. However, intermodal container and trailer volumes declined year-over-year, reflecting easing supply chain bottlenecks and cooling consumer demand. Overall North American rail freight volumes show a similar diverging trend. Moving forward, railway companies need to improve operational efficiency and expand their business areas to address challenges and seize opportunities.

01/28/2026 Logistics
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US Rail Freight Demand Slows in Early February

US Rail Freight Demand Slows in Early February

According to the Association of American Railroads, U.S. rail freight and intermodal traffic both declined year-over-year for the week ending February 4th. Carload traffic saw a slight decrease, although commodities like automobiles and parts experienced growth. Intermodal volume continued its downward trend, reflecting weak consumer demand. Year-to-date figures are mixed, with North America performing slightly better overall, and Mexican railways demonstrating strong growth. Multiple factors are at play, making the future trend uncertain.

01/28/2026 Logistics
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Strong Consumer Spending Fails to Boost Freight Demand

Strong Consumer Spending Fails to Boost Freight Demand

Armada's Mr. Prather pointed out at the SMC3 J meeting that the freight market can sometimes be disconnected from the broader macroeconomy. Changes in consumption patterns and optimized inventory management strategies are potential drivers of this phenomenon. Businesses need a deep understanding of different industry dynamics. Freight companies should also innovate their service models to adapt to these shifts and better serve the evolving needs of their customers. This requires a proactive approach to understanding and responding to the factors influencing freight demand.

01/28/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Services Sector Slows in September but Remains Resilient

US Services Sector Slows in September but Remains Resilient

U.S. non-manufacturing activity moderated slightly in September, but the NMI index remained above the expansion threshold, marking 116 consecutive months of growth. Thirteen industries expanded, while employment growth slowed. Imports and exports presented a mixed picture. Experts suggest there's no need for excessive concern, emphasizing the importance of monitoring trade and employment. They anticipate growth in the fourth quarter.

01/28/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Tariff Extension Rattles Global Supply Chains

US Tariff Extension Rattles Global Supply Chains

The extension of the US reciprocal tariff suspension to August 1st has drawn global attention to supply chains. This article delves into the tariff logic of the Trump administration, analyzing the underlying dynamics and risks of the extension. It explores how businesses can cope with the uncertainties brought about by tariff policies, emphasizing the importance of cost control, risk management, and sustainable development.

01/29/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Trucking Volumes Jump in August Amid Hurricane Demand

US Trucking Volumes Jump in August Amid Hurricane Demand

Data from the American Trucking Associations shows a significant increase in U.S. trucking volume in August, with strong month-over-month and year-over-year performance. Factors such as pre-hurricane preparations, increased port throughput, and lower inventory levels contributed to this growth. However, the industry continues to face challenges including tight capacity and fluctuating fuel prices. A cautiously optimistic outlook is warranted for future development.

01/29/2026 Logistics
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US Freight Market Shows Signs of Recovery Amid Downturn

US Freight Market Shows Signs of Recovery Amid Downturn

The Bank of America Freight Payment Index indicates a continued decline in both freight volumes and spending in the US freight market, though the rate of decrease is slowing, suggesting a potential market bottom. Regional market performance is diverging, with shifts in consumer spending patterns and cost pressures being key factors. Experts recommend focusing on changes in consumer structure, cost control, technological innovation, and the policy environment to navigate market challenges.

01/28/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Freight Market Decline Stabilizes As Volumes Ease

US Freight Market Decline Stabilizes As Volumes Ease

The Bank of America Freight Payment Index indicates a continued decline in the US freight market, although the rate of decrease is slowing, potentially signaling a bottoming out. Key influencing factors include shifts in consumer spending patterns, macroeconomic headwinds, and internal industry competition. The Western region demonstrates relative stability. The report advises businesses to closely monitor market dynamics, adjust strategies, and prepare for future opportunities. The narrowing decline suggests a possible turning point, but vigilance remains crucial in navigating the evolving landscape.

01/28/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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US Freight Market Stabilizes Amid Weakness Bank of America

US Freight Market Stabilizes Amid Weakness Bank of America

Bank of America's Q2 Freight Payment Index reveals a continued decline in US freight volumes and spending, but the rate of decrease is slowing, potentially signaling a market bottom. Key influencing factors include shifts in consumer spending, debt pressures, and fuel prices. Looking ahead, attention should be paid to macroeconomic conditions and capacity adjustments. Freight companies should remain flexible to navigate market changes.

01/28/2026 Logistics Industry Insights
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