In July, the manufacturing PMI index fell to 48.0, remaining in a contraction phase for five consecutive months. This indicates weak market confidence, and businesses are facing significant challenges that require timely strategic adjustments to cope.
The US ISM report shows the Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for the ninth consecutive month, indicating a sustained and accelerating contraction in the manufacturing sector. While the overall economy is still growing, the pace is slowing. This manufacturing downturn could negatively impact employment, investment, and consumption, requiring close monitoring and timely action.
The US Services PMI unexpectedly fell below 50 in April, ending a 15-month expansion and raising concerns about an economic recession. The report's detailed breakdown of sectors and service sub-indicators reveals issues such as weak employment and persistent inflationary pressures. Experts suggest the pullback may be temporary, but caution against overlooking potential risks. The unexpected contraction in the services sector, a significant contributor to the US economy, warrants close monitoring for signs of a broader economic slowdown.
The August ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declined, with all three key indicators showing a downward trend, particularly in employment contraction. Despite growth in the Manufacturing PMI, the overall economic recovery faces challenges, and inflationary pressures persist. Businesses should closely monitor economic indicators, flexibly adjust their operational strategies, proactively address risks, and seek opportunities for growth. The significant drop in the Non-Manufacturing PMI signals potential headwinds for the service sector and reinforces concerns about the sustainability of the economic rebound.
The Logistics Manager's Index (LMI) for June highlights a recovery in the logistics sector, reaching 60.7 after two consecutive months of growth. Rising inventory levels and costs are key driving factors. Additionally, warehousing capacity has entered contraction territory for the first time, indicating a landscape where challenges and opportunities coexist.
In May 2025, international air cargo demand grew by 2.2% year-on-year, demonstrating the industry's resilience. Despite a contraction in global manufacturing and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on certain regions, the Asia-Pacific region experienced the fastest growth in cargo demand at 8.3%. Additionally, falling oil prices provided relief for the airlines.
The logistics management index in June reached 60.7, showing a significant increase from May and indicating signs of recovery in the logistics sector. Inventory levels and costs continue to rise, while warehousing capacity has entered a contraction phase for the first time, reflecting potential uncertainties in future supply and demand. Changes in trade policy have also had a significant impact on the economy and the outlook for the logistics industry.
S&P Global reports a 3.4% year-over-year decline in US imports for October, marking the third consecutive month of contraction, signaling weak import demand. High inflation, economic downturn risks, and Federal Reserve rate hikes are cited as key factors. The report anticipates continued downward pressure on US import volumes in the coming months, posing challenges for economic recovery. The sustained decline reflects weakening domestic demand and global economic headwinds.
Shopee's massive layoffs have shaken the industry, highlighting its global contraction strategy. Compared to Europe and the US, the Southeast Asian market attracts many sellers due to its faster logistics, quicker returns, and lower risks. Independent websites and TikTok Shop are emerging as new options, but require careful consideration of one's own characteristics. Cross-border e-commerce businesses need to adjust their strategies promptly to succeed in the competitive landscape.
The partial suspension of Banggood's operations in Guangzhou reflects the severe challenges facing the cross-border e-commerce industry. Due to factors like a deteriorating external environment and weak market demand, many companies are adopting measures such as business contraction and layoffs to survive. To enhance competitiveness and weather the industry downturn, businesses should focus on refined operations, diversified market strategies, strengthened supply chain management, embracing digital transformation, and closely monitoring policy changes.
