FTR's latest data shows the Shipper Conditions Index (SCI) remains stable, but the risk of potential market volatility is increasing. Factors such as stabilized fuel prices and tightening capacity suggest that the freight market will face more challenges in 2024. Shippers should closely monitor market changes, optimize their supply chains, and proactively respond to enhance their competitiveness.
The US Non-Manufacturing Index edged down to 55.5 in July, but remained in expansion territory, indicating a solid economic foundation. New orders and business activity continued to grow, while employment slowed slightly. Sector performance was mixed. Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of global economic uncertainties and policy factors on the non-manufacturing sector.
US personal income grew more than expected in September, but PCE inflation pressure remained, with the overall PCE price index hitting a one-year high. The data reflects the complexity of the US economy: income growth supports consumption, but inflation pressures persist. The future economic direction depends on multiple factors, including the labor market, inflation trends, and geopolitical risks.
Freight rates on US routes continue to decline, with the SCFI index falling for three consecutive weeks. The oversupply situation has made companies cautious about shipping, leading to concerns among industry insiders about future rate drops. Despite pressures from the global trade landscape, the market still hopes for a rebound in rates with the arrival of the traditional peak season.
In July 2024, China's export container transportation market showed stable improvement with an overall increase in freight rates, as the freight index for major routes generally rose. Despite ongoing challenges affecting the European and North American markets, port throughput has been trending upwards, and the ship leasing market remains active, demonstrating the resilience and potential of the container shipping market.
The American Trucking Associations reported a 0.7% month-over-month increase in the U.S. truck tonnage index for January, marking the second consecutive month of growth. This data, considered a leading economic indicator, may suggest a gradual recovery in U.S. economic activity. However, the limitations of relying on a single month's data should be acknowledged, and future trends require continuous monitoring.
According to the American Trucking Associations, the freight tonnage index decreased month-over-month in April, although it still increased year-over-year but at a slower pace. Weakness in the spot market may impact the contract market. Businesses should pay attention to macroeconomic data, optimize capacity allocation, strengthen cost control, and expand diversified services to cope with uncertainty in the freight market.
Bank of America's Q2 Freight Payment Index reveals a continued decline in US freight volumes and spending, but the rate of decrease is slowing, potentially signaling a market bottom. Key influencing factors include shifts in consumer spending, debt pressures, and fuel prices. Looking ahead, attention should be paid to macroeconomic conditions and capacity adjustments. Freight companies should remain flexible to navigate market changes.
The US Manufacturing PMI for February remained below 50, indicating contraction, but showed improvement compared to the previous month. New orders were flat, while the production index increased, and the rate of job contraction slowed. Most companies reported positive sentiment, and low inventory levels suggest potential restocking demand. Experts believe that the manufacturing sector may be poised for a recovery.
The latest Logistics Manager's Index (LMI) indicates that the US logistics industry has expanded for 14 consecutive months, signaling continued robust growth. Inventory expansion is accelerating, warehousing prices are rising, transportation capacity continues to expand, and transportation price increases are slowing down. Businesses need to pay attention to changes in trade policies, optimize inventory management, and improve supply chain efficiency to navigate the evolving landscape.
