Container shipping rates continue to decline due to weak demand and supply-demand imbalances. In the short term, rates may decrease further; however, seasonal demand recovery in the second quarter could provide support for rates. At the same time, uncertainties in the global economic landscape and trade policies will continue to influence market trends.
The air cargo market faces significant challenges due to weak demand and declining external demand impacting overall growth. However, the rise of cross-border e-commerce brings new driving forces to the industry. In the future, innovative policies and facility optimization will be necessary to adapt to market changes.
The Drewry World Container Index has fallen for five consecutive weeks, impacted by tariff policies and economic downturn, leading to weak freight rates. Analysts forecast that further demand shrinkage may increase downward pressure on future freight rates.
The FTR Trucking Conditions Index indicates a slight recovery in the US trucking industry, but it still faces challenges such as weak demand, intense freight rate competition, and excess capacity. Weak manufacturing data exacerbates industry uncertainty. Trucking companies need to control costs, improve service quality, and pay attention to market dynamics to meet these challenges. The industry's future development will require transformation and adjustment. The recovery is fragile and dependent on broader economic improvements.
The 2023 air cargo peak season is facing weak rebound, with shippers placing orders early indicating a slowdown in demand and freight rates not rising as expected. Although some airlines benefit from e-commerce demand, the overall cargo market remains complex and volatile, with future growth constrained by a slowdown in manufacturing and various supply chain issues.
In Q1 2025, the freight market appears stable on the surface but is hiding underlying uncertainties, with weak demand and limited supply. Although short-term demand has risen, the ongoing decline reflects shippers' lack of confidence in the market. The overall industry is in a state of adjustment but is facing greater tension, making flexible operational models increasingly important.
Container freight rates have significantly declined, particularly on trans-Pacific routes, with a weekly drop reaching double digits. Weak demand has led to the cancellation of numerous voyages, and more blank sailings are expected in the future, posing severe challenges for the shipping market.
Bloomberg predicts the US trade deficit will hit a record high in May, with the total deficit for the first five months far exceeding levels during the pandemic. A surge in exports from several Asian countries to the US is potentially linked to the temporary expiration of US 'reciprocal tariffs.' Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has led to a decline in foreign investment inflows into the US. Economists warn this could hinder economic growth. The US needs to carefully consider its tariff policies and strengthen international cooperation to mitigate potential negative consequences.
The Cowen/AFS Freight Index indicates a slight increase in LTL rates in Q3, driven by factors like Yellow's bankruptcy and soft demand. Parcel rates decreased. A muted peak season is anticipated for Q4, with limited TL freight growth. The index reflects the current complex and volatile freight market, along with a trend of shippers actively optimizing their logistics networks. The impact of Yellow's exit and ongoing economic uncertainty are key factors shaping the near-term outlook for the industry.
S&P Global reports a 3.4% year-over-year decline in US imports for October, marking the third consecutive month of contraction, signaling weak import demand. High inflation, economic downturn risks, and Federal Reserve rate hikes are cited as key factors. The report anticipates continued downward pressure on US import volumes in the coming months, posing challenges for economic recovery. The sustained decline reflects weakening domestic demand and global economic headwinds.
