Fitch Ratings analysts point out that even during periods of weak demand early in the pandemic, major shipping companies effectively controlled the supply of containers in the market by flexibly adjusting capacity. This supported stable freight rates and ultimately drove prices higher. The self-discipline of shipping companies in terms of capacity supply is reshaping the pricing mechanism of the maritime market.
DAT data indicates a surge in truckload freight volumes in the US market post-Thanksgiving, leading to tighter capacity and slightly higher rates. The dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed sectors all experienced growth. Analysts attribute the market rebound to a combination of seasonal and macroeconomic factors. Looking ahead, key areas to watch include consumer demand, capacity availability, macroeconomic trends, and regulatory changes.
The bankruptcy and market exit of U.S. LTL giant Yellow Corporation has sparked widespread concern about its impact. Analysis suggests that the current LTL market has sufficient capacity to absorb Yellow's freight volume, limiting price volatility. Proactive shippers and carriers with refined operations can facilitate a smooth market transition. In the future, regional players may expand, reshaping the market landscape. The overall impact is expected to be manageable given existing capacity and strategic adjustments by industry participants.
The General Office of the Ministry of Transport has established clear capacity standards for self-owned vessels of companies engaged in direct river-sea transportation to promote green development in water transport and improve efficiency. Companies solely involved in direct river-sea transportation must adhere to capacity standards similar to those of inland waterway transport companies, while those participating in other waterway operations are required to meet higher standard demands.
The FTR Trucking Index edged up to 0.3, signaling easing price pressures and improved utilization. Market improvement is anticipated in 2026-27, with capacity constraints potentially acting as a catalyst. While the index shows a slight positive movement, the underlying issue of capacity and its impact on pricing and overall market health remains a key factor to watch. The expectation of future market recovery hinges on the interplay between demand and the availability of trucking resources.
The freight market exhibits a typical boom-and-bust cyclical pattern, fundamentally driven by unstable supply and demand. Economic cycles cause demand fluctuations, while the lagged adjustment of transport capacity exacerbates market volatility. Solutions involve government macro-control, corporate risk management, and coordinated guidance from industry associations to maintain market order and achieve sustainable development. The key is to mitigate the impact of delayed capacity adjustments and external economic shocks through proactive planning and collaborative efforts.
The US government's increased regulation of English proficiency for truck drivers aims to improve road safety and protect domestic jobs. However, the actual impact on trucking capacity appears limited, with no significant price fluctuations observed. Market demand remains the key driver of freight rates, and the long-term effects of the policy require further observation. The regulation's influence on capacity is overshadowed by broader market forces influencing the trucking industry.
In 2025, the transportation industry will face changes in pricing and capacity, necessitating cross-industry collaboration to address market fluctuations and enhance competitiveness.
DAT's latest report reveals a mixed picture for the US truckload capacity market in October. Dry van demand declined, while refrigerated and flatbed demand remained stable. Spot rates saw a slight increase, and contract rates remained largely unchanged. Experts attribute the weak demand as the primary driver, forecasting continued challenges for the market in 2025. The report suggests that companies should focus on refined operations, flexible capacity management, enhanced risk management, and embracing digital transformation to navigate the evolving market conditions.
This article analyzes the current surge in shipping capacity in the US West Coast market and explores the potential for renewed congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. By examining historical data, market signals, and capacity utilization rates, it predicts a potential congestion risk in late July. The article also proposes coping strategies for shippers and freight forwarders, aiming to help businesses better navigate potential supply chain challenges and mitigate disruptions.
