The Federal Reserve announced its third rate cut this year, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, the lowest level since 2022. This move aims to address economic slowdown and trade frictions, stimulating economic growth. The future policy direction remains uncertain, and the Federal Reserve will closely monitor economic data and flexibly adjust monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes again, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged, mainly due to economic uncertainty. Ongoing trade friction exacerbates supply chain risks and poses challenges to inflation control. The future direction of interest rate policy depends on factors such as inflation data and trade policies. The US economy continues to face uncertainty.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump favors nominating Warsh or Hassett as Federal Reserve Chairman and hopes the new chairman will cooperate with interest rate cuts. Trump is breaking with tradition by demanding involvement in interest rate decisions, aiming to lower rates to 1% or lower. He is dissatisfied with current Chairman Powell and is considering other potential candidates. Market reactions suggest Hassett's chances are decreasing, while Warsh's support is increasing. The choice of Federal Reserve Chairman and the direction of monetary policy will have a profound impact on the global economy.
US November CPI data unexpectedly declined, prompting a reassessment of inflation trends. The data may be biased and requires careful interpretation. The market reaction was brief, and the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious monetary policy. Future data will be crucial in determining the direction of inflation.
The Federal Reserve might be overlooking the deflationary impact of falling oil prices, possibly due to political considerations or model reliance. This calls for the Fed to exercise patience, remain data-dependent, and adopt a flexible approach in formulating sound monetary policy. Ignoring the oil price effect could lead to policy missteps and hinder the Fed's ability to effectively manage inflation and support economic stability. A more nuanced and responsive strategy is crucial in the current economic environment.
US factory orders rose a less-than-expected 0.2% in September, with the data delayed due to the government shutdown. While durable goods and non-defense capital goods orders held steady, the overall figure suggests a potential slowdown in the manufacturing recovery. The market impact was limited, with investors focusing more on the latest economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy. The modest increase in factory orders reinforces concerns about the pace of economic growth and its implications for future monetary policy decisions.
The University of Michigan's preliminary December consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose, with a significant drop in inflation expectations, potentially paving the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Despite some controversy surrounding the index, it remains an important reference point for the Fed. This news could be a positive signal for the market, and investors should closely monitor the Fed's policy moves.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, while tariff policies continue to impact the economy, and the logistics industry faces uncertainty. Expert opinions diverge, highlighting the need for businesses to closely monitor policy developments. To navigate these challenges, companies should optimize supply chain management, improve operational efficiency, and strengthen collaboration and innovation. Proactive adaptation is crucial for mitigating risks and capitalizing on emerging opportunities in this dynamic environment.
Federal Reserve official Schmid expressed concerns about high inflation, arguing that current monetary policy is not restrictive enough. He called for maintaining a moderate tightening to defend the Fed's credibility. His hawkish stance could impact bond, stock, and foreign exchange markets, requiring investors to remain vigilant. The statement highlights the ongoing debate within the Fed regarding the appropriate response to persistent inflationary pressures and the potential consequences for financial markets.
AUD/USD broke through the key resistance level of 0.6635, indicating bulls are in control and a short-term upward trend is likely. Watch for upside targets at 0.6659 and the resistance zone of 0.6688-0.6706. A break below 0.6635 could trigger a pullback. Traders should pay attention to Australian economic data, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and global risk sentiment. The pair's movement will likely be influenced by these factors, presenting both opportunities and risks.
