The 2025 Supply Chain Outlook analyzes three key factors: the Chinese New Year, economic growth, and external dependencies. It explores how to tackle challenges and seize opportunities to assist companies in formulating effective logistics strategies.
The TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index reveals a mixed bag for different transportation modes despite overall weak freight demand. Truckload spot rates are slightly up, but contract rates remain under pressure. Parcel carriers are adapting to market competition through flexible pricing strategies. LTL pricing remains stable, but there are signs of weakening pricing discipline. The index provides valuable market insights and decision-making support for freight companies.
The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index indicates a mixed performance in the third quarter freight market. LTL rates increased due to Yellow's bankruptcy, while parcel shipping saw deeper discounts. Truckload remained relatively stable. A muted peak season is expected in the fourth quarter with slower growth across all segments. Logistics companies need to refine operations, improve service quality, and embrace digitalization to navigate these challenges. The index highlights the need for strategic adaptation in a dynamic market environment.
AUD/USD has broken below a key technical support level, with bears controlling the short-term trend. 0.6584 is the last line of defense for bulls; a break below could trigger a deeper correction. A return above 0.6638 would suggest a resumption of the upward trend. Investors should closely monitor these key technical levels and make cautious decisions. The pair is currently under pressure, and further downside is possible if support fails to hold. Trading strategies should consider these potential scenarios.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts stabilizing global airline profitability despite supply chain challenges, projecting a 3.9% net profit margin by 2026. The report highlights passenger and cargo volume growth, but notes that returns on invested capital remain below the cost of capital. The industry is calling for a rebalancing of the value chain, reduced regulatory burdens, and improved efficiency to enhance profitability and sustainability in the long term. This includes addressing infrastructure constraints and streamlining operational processes.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that US core CPI could rise by 0.6% if the US imposes tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. The report suggests the duration of these tariff policies is uncertain but unlikely to become a long-term feature. Existing inflationary pressures in the US persist, and the new tariff policies may exacerbate inflation. The impact depends on the scope and longevity of the tariffs, but Goldman Sachs believes the effect will be noticeable in the short term.
The Cowen/AFS Freight Index indicates a slight increase in LTL rates in Q3, driven by factors like Yellow's bankruptcy and soft demand. Parcel rates decreased. A muted peak season is anticipated for Q4, with limited TL freight growth. The index reflects the current complex and volatile freight market, along with a trend of shippers actively optimizing their logistics networks. The impact of Yellow's exit and ongoing economic uncertainty are key factors shaping the near-term outlook for the industry.
A joint report by Airwallex and Statista predicts that the ANZ e-commerce market will reach $66.4 billion by 2029. Key drivers include high internet penetration, shifting consumer shopping habits, the development of e-commerce platforms, and diversified consumer demand. Cross-border e-commerce sellers should seize this opportunity to expand into the Australia & New Zealand market.
