The growing stacks of idle containers at ports and half-empty cargo ships signal more than just operational headaches for shipping companies—they reveal mounting stress across global trade networks. The lingering effects of U.S. tariff policies are now disrupting trans-Pacific shipping routes in unprecedented ways, according to a new report from maritime analytics firm Sea-Intelligence.
Plummeting Capacity: Warning Signs in the Data
Sea-Intelligence analysts report an explosive surge in canceled sailings across trans-Pacific routes since early May. While blank sailing rates remained near zero through mid-April, the situation deteriorated rapidly during the week starting May 5th, when idle capacity suddenly spiked to 35% of planned weekly capacity. The crisis deepened the following week as the figure climbed to 42%, marking a steady 7-percentage-point weekly increase that reflects worsening trade conditions.
The Asia-to-North America West Coast route shows similar distress. Blank sailings jumped from 13% to 28% within a single week in late April—a volatility level typically seen only during traditional low seasons like China's Spring Festival or Golden Week holidays.
Shipping Lines Scramble to Adapt
Facing collapsing demand, carriers are implementing mass cancellations to stabilize the market. Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy notes that the scale of recent blank sailings reflects dramatic shifts in supply-demand dynamics. The abrupt nature of these cancellations has created significant uncertainty for shippers and amplified market turbulence.
The Tariff Effect
Trade barriers emerge as the primary driver behind the trans-Pacific capacity crash. Steep tariffs have inflated trade costs, eroded product competitiveness, and forced shippers to slash orders. This ripple effect now threatens carrier revenues and destabilizes supply chains.
Compounding the problem, uncertainty about future tariff policies has triggered widespread caution among shippers. Many are postponing shipments or adjusting schedules to mitigate potential risks, further depressing shipping volumes.
Navigating Uncertain Waters
The trajectory of trans-Pacific shipping hinges largely on U.S.-China trade relations. Should tariffs persist or escalate, the industry faces intensified challenges. Carriers must remain agile in capacity management while exploring diversification strategies.
Shippers, meanwhile, need enhanced risk management protocols and closer coordination with carriers. As protectionist measures reshape global trade, the trans-Pacific shipping crisis represents not just an operational challenge, but a fundamental test for international commerce systems.