WASHINGTON, D.C. – The American Trucking Associations (ATA), in collaboration with S&P Global Market Intelligence, has released its ATA Freight Transportation Forecast 2024-2035 , projecting that trucking will continue to dominate the U.S. freight market over the next decade, serving as a critical engine for economic growth despite competition from other transport modes and evolving economic conditions.
Trucking’s Steady Leadership and Growth Trajectory
The report forecasts significant growth in truck freight volume, with a 1.6% increase expected in 2025 and a surge to nearly 1.4 billion tons by 2035. Given that trucks already handle over 70% of the nation’s freight, these projections align with long-standing industry trends.
ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello emphasized, "Trucking continues to dominate the freight transportation sector in both tonnage and revenue, accounting for 72.7% of tonnage and 76.9% of revenue in 2024. We anticipate this market share will remain stable as the U.S. relies on trucks to transport the vast majority of goods."
Key Projections: Tonnage, Revenue, and Market Share
The report highlights several critical forecasts:
- Tonnage Growth: Total truck freight tonnage is projected to rise from 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to 13.99 billion tons by 2034, capturing 76.8% of the freight market by 2035.
- Revenue Growth: Industry revenue is expected to climb from $906 billion in 2024 to $1.46 trillion by the end of the forecast period.
- Market Share: Trucking’s dominance is expected to persist, with a projected 76.8% share of the freight market by 2035.
Other Transport Modes: Competition and Collaboration
The report also examines trends in competing freight sectors:
- Rail Freight: Declining coal shipments will reduce rail’s tonnage share from 10.6% in 2024 to 9.9% by 2035, though intermodal rail is expected to grow by 2.9% before 2030 and 2.8% thereafter.
- Air, Water, and Pipeline: These modes are projected to see tonnage growth, reflecting their niche roles in high-value, bulk, and liquid cargo transport.
ATA Leadership: "Knowledge Is Power"
ATA President and CEO Chris Spear underscored the report’s value for industry leaders and policymakers, stating, "Understanding supply chain trends is essential for federal and state legislators shaping policies that impact trucking and the broader economy."
Critical Factors Shaping Trucking’s Future
The report identifies several drivers of industry growth:
- Economic and Demographic Trends: Moderate GDP growth, population expansion, and rising consumer spending will fuel freight demand.
- Manufacturing Revival: Increased transport needs for raw materials and finished goods.
- Technology: Innovations like autonomous trucks and digital logistics systems.
- Regulatory and Labor Challenges: Policies and driver shortages remain pivotal concerns.
Preparing for the Future
To sustain growth, the report recommends:
- Investing in efficiency-boosting technologies.
- Addressing workforce gaps through improved recruitment.
- Collaborating on balanced regulations.
- Strengthening intermodal partnerships.
The report concludes that trucking’s role in the U.S. economy—supporting jobs, trade, and national security—will remain indispensable through 2035.