WASHINGTON, D.C. – America's highways are expected to become even busier in the coming decade, with countless trucks traversing the nation's roads – not just as massive steel vehicles but as symbols of the country's thriving economy. Despite recent declines in freight volumes across various transportation modes, the trucking industry continues to dominate both freight tonnage and revenue due to its unparalleled efficiency, flexibility, and extensive coverage.
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) , in collaboration with S&P Global Market Intelligence, has released its annual forecast report, "ATA Freight Transportation Forecast 2024-2035," providing valuable insights for industry leaders and policymakers about the bright future of trucking over the next decade.
Trucking to Maintain Leadership Position, Solidifying Its Role as Supply Chain Cornerstone
The report projects a 1.6% increase in truck freight volume for 2025, reaching nearly 1.4 billion tons by 2035. Given that trucking has long accounted for over 70% of the U.S. freight market, this forecast comes as no surprise but rather confirms the industry's consistent performance. Key findings include:
- Freight Volume Growth: Total truck freight volume is expected to grow from 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to 13.99 billion tons by 2034, capturing 76.8% of the freight market by 2035. This significant growth reflects rising demand for goods transportation as the U.S. economy expands and population grows.
- Revenue Growth: Industry revenue is projected to increase from $906 billion in 2024 to $1.46 trillion by the end of the forecast period, demonstrating the sector's value in meeting growing freight demands.
- Other Transportation Modes: Rail freight's market share is expected to decline from 10.6% in 2024 to 9.9% by 2035 due to decreasing coal shipments. Rail intermodal volume is forecast to grow 2.9% before 2030 and 2.8% between 2031-2035. Air cargo, domestic water transportation, and pipeline transport are all projected to experience volume growth during 2024-2035.
ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello stated: "In this edition of the forecast, trucking continues to dominate both freight tonnage and revenue, accounting for 72.7% of tonnage and 76.9% of revenue in 2024. We expect this market share to remain stable over the next decade as America continues to rely on trucks to transport the vast majority of goods."
Strategic Guidance for Policymakers Supporting Economic Growth
ATA President and CEO Chris Spear emphasized that this annual forecast provides crucial guidance for industry leaders in developing strategic plans. He noted that understanding supply chain trends is essential for policymakers in Washington D.C. and across states, as their decisions directly impact both the trucking industry and the broader economy.
Challenges and Opportunities: Technology, Workforce, and Regulation
While optimistic about the industry's future, the report acknowledges several challenges:
- Technological Innovation: Emerging technologies like autonomous driving, electric trucks, and digital platforms are transforming the industry, requiring adaptation from companies.
- Workforce Shortages: The persistent truck driver shortage may worsen due to demographic changes, necessitating improved compensation and working conditions.
- Regulatory Environment: Balancing safety, environmental, and labor regulations with operational efficiency remains an ongoing challenge.
Future Trends: Sustainability, Digitalization, and Collaboration
The industry is evolving toward:
- Green Initiatives: Adoption of cleaner fuels, energy-efficient technologies, and zero-emission vehicles.
- Smart Technologies: Implementation of AI, big data analytics, and IoT solutions across operations.
- Industry Collaboration: Enhanced cooperation among stakeholders to address shared challenges.
Economic Impact Across Sectors
The trucking industry plays vital roles in:
- Retail: Supporting e-commerce growth and last-mile delivery
- Manufacturing: Ensuring timely movement of raw materials and finished products
- Agriculture: Maintaining cold chain logistics for perishable goods
- Construction: Transporting heavy materials to job sites
- Energy: Facilitating short-haul and final delivery of fuel products
The industry's broad economic contributions include job creation, trade facilitation, and overall economic growth support.
Future Outlook: Sustainable, Innovative, and Talent-Focused
Looking ahead, the trucking industry will prioritize:
- Environmental sustainability through clean energy adoption
- Technological innovation to enhance efficiency and safety
- Workforce development to address talent shortages
The report concludes that despite challenges, the trucking industry's future remains promising as it continues serving as America's economic lifeline while adapting to evolving demands and technologies.