South Koreas Jeju Route Signals Aviation Recovery Trends

This paper analyzes the competitive landscape of the Korean aviation market, the operational model of the Jeju-Gimpo super route, and the recovery trend of international routes. The Korean domestic market is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with strong demand on the Jeju route. The recovery of international routes is led by the Japanese market, with both traditional airlines and low-cost carriers driving market growth. The analysis highlights key factors influencing the Korean aviation industry and its future development.
South Koreas Jeju Route Signals Aviation Recovery Trends

The South Korean aviation market has emerged as one of Asia's most dynamic sectors, characterized by intense competition, concentrated market power, and strong recovery in international routes. With total capacity reaching 14.5 million seats in November 2025, the industry demonstrates remarkable resilience and growth potential.

Market Overview: Concentration and Competition

South Korea's aviation landscape presents a paradox of fierce competition alongside growing market concentration. The November 2025 data reveals a market where 62% of capacity serves international routes, while domestic operations account for the remaining 38%.

The industry underwent a seismic shift in December 2024 when Korean Air and Asiana Airlines completed their merger. This consolidation created an aviation powerhouse that, together with its low-cost subsidiaries (Jin Air and Air Busan), now commands 77% of domestic capacity. This level of market concentration establishes what analysts describe as an oligopolistic structure, where a few dominant players control most resources while smaller carriers struggle for market share.

Jeju-Gimpo: The Crown Jewel of Domestic Routes

The Jeju International Airport (CJU) to Seoul Gimpo Airport (GMP) route stands as the undisputed champion of South Korea's domestic aviation market. This corridor serves as a case study in high-frequency, high-capacity route management:

  • Seven carriers compete on this single route
  • 209 daily round-trip flights (averaging over 8 flights per hour)
  • 1.4 million monthly seats offered to meet demand
  • Asiana operates 57 daily round-trips, Korean Air 55, and Jeju Air 41

Jeju Island's popularity as South Korea's premier tourist destination drives this remarkable traffic. Seven of the country's top ten domestic routes connect to Jeju, where aviation remains the only practical transportation option. The presence of multiple low-cost carriers has kept average one-way economy fares at just $33, making air travel accessible to most South Koreans.

International Recovery: Japan Leads, Diversification Emerges

South Korea's international aviation network shows robust recovery, with November 2025 capacity reaching 9 million seats—4.7% above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. The international market features:

  • 84 operating airlines
  • Korean Air Group commanding 43% market share
  • Jeju Air as second-largest operator with 8% share
  • South Korean carriers controlling 68% of international capacity

Regional Market Dynamics

Japan remains South Korea's largest international market, with November 2025 capacity at 2.61 million seats—an 89% increase over 2019. The Seoul Incheon-Tokyo Narita and Seoul Incheon-Osaka Kansai routes rank among the ten busiest international corridors.

China , while ranking as the second-largest market at 1.57 million seats, continues to lag behind 2019 performance due to sluggish outbound demand and geopolitical tensions.

Singapore has seen 44% growth compared to 2019, fueled by strong business links, premium tourism, and increasing cultural exchange tied to the Korean Wave (Hallyu).

The U.S. market has expanded 21% beyond 2019 levels, supported by Korean-American travel, educational exchanges, and the Korean Air-Delta Air Lines joint venture that strengthens Incheon's position as a transpacific hub.

Conclusion: Dual-Engine Growth Model

South Korea's aviation success stems from a dual-engine model combining traditional carriers' scale advantages with low-cost airlines' operational flexibility. This hybrid approach has propelled both domestic expansion and international recovery, positioning South Korea as a regional aviation leader.

The market faces ongoing challenges including fuel price volatility, geopolitical risks, and competitive pressures. However, the industry's demonstrated adaptability and strong fundamentals suggest continued growth potential as travel patterns evolve in the post-pandemic era.