Many cross-border e-commerce sellers who anticipated a sales boom during the traditional "golden September and silver October" peak season instead found themselves facing worse numbers than during the off-season. Amazon U.S. marketplace has seen a dramatic drop in orders, with numerous sellers lamenting that "Americans have run out of money." Is this a temporary setback or a long-term trend? And how should businesses navigate this economic "winter"?
Is U.S. Consumer Spending Really Declining? The Data Speaks
Sellers' observations aren't unfounded. One merchant reported that a product which previously sold hundreds of units daily has dwindled to just 10 orders. This isn't an isolated case—many sellers report continuous sales declines over the past two months, dashing hopes for a seasonal rebound.
The explanation lies in macroeconomic factors. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, global economies have struggled. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 8.5% in March and has remained elevated, meaning soaring prices—particularly for energy and food—have significantly eroded Americans' purchasing power.
Compounding this, the cessation of pandemic relief payments has further constrained consumer spending. Americans are tightening their belts, leading to decreased demand for non-essential goods—a trend clearly reflected in e-commerce data.
Chinese customs data shows that while exports to the U.S. grew 12% year-over-year to nearly $400 billion from January to August, monthly figures reveal an alarming trend: August exports totaled $49.775 billion, down nearly 10% from July's $55 billion. This suggests that while cumulative export values are rising, actual import volumes are decreasing—clear evidence of weakened U.S. consumer purchasing power.
Sales Drop While Rankings Rise? What This Means
More concerning are reports that some products' sales rankings have improved even as their sales volumes decline. This indicates an across-the-board market contraction where competitors face identical challenges—intensifying sellers' anxieties.
Multiple Challenges Facing Cross-Border E-Commerce
Beyond macroeconomic pressures, cross-border sellers confront additional hurdles:
- Soaring advertising costs: Declining return on ad spend makes customer acquisition increasingly unprofitable.
- Shrinking profit margins: Falling sales coupled with rising costs create existential pressures.
- Intensified competition: Platforms like Temu entering the U.S. market with aggressive pricing strategies disrupt Amazon sellers.
How Long Will This "Winter" Last?
Industry analysts predict global economic downturns and reduced consumer spending may persist for 1-2 years. For non-essential goods sellers, survival becomes the immediate priority.
Is There Hope for the Holiday Season? Halloween May Offer Relief
Despite bleak prospects, year-end holidays remain crucial opportunities. Post-pandemic, consumers show heightened enthusiasm for seasonal spending.
The CDC's relaxed COVID-19 guidelines create favorable conditions for Halloween celebrations. Early indicators suggest Americans have begun Halloween shopping.
The National Retail Federation's annual survey shows 69% of consumers plan to celebrate Halloween—matching pre-pandemic 2019 levels and exceeding 2021's 65%. NRF projects record Halloween spending of $10.6 billion, surpassing last year's $10.1 billion.
Which Halloween Categories Show Promise?
Consumers plan to spend $100 on average for candy, decorations, cards and costumes. Costumes claim the largest share at $2.9 billion—the highest since 2017. Spider-Man and princess outfits lead children's categories, while witches and vampires dominate adult costumes.
Notably, pet costumes will see record spending at $710 million as dressing pets becomes increasingly popular.
Key Halloween opportunity categories include:
- Costumes: Children's, adults' and pets' Halloween outfits, especially classic characters.
- Decorations: Themed indoor/outdoor items like jack-o'-lanterns, skeletons, ghosts and spiderwebs.
- Candy: Individually wrapped varieties ideal for trick-or-treating.
- Pet supplies: Costumes, toys and treats for animals.
Strategies for Halloween Success
- Product selection: Track trending Halloween items.
- Marketing: Launch themed promotions and social media campaigns.
- Logistics: Ensure reliable delivery systems.
- Inventory: Maintain balanced stock levels.
Beyond Halloween: Additional Seasonal Opportunities
The holiday shopping season extends through Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas—each offering potential for tailored marketing approaches.
Surviving the Winter, Awaiting Spring
While cross-border e-commerce faces unprecedented challenges, opportunities persist for adaptable sellers. Strategic holiday season execution may help businesses endure current difficulties and position for future growth. In this environment, survival itself becomes victory.
Strategic Recommendations for Cross-Border Sellers
- Monitor macroeconomic indicators: Track U.S. economic data and policy shifts.
- Optimize product mix: Increase essentials and value-oriented offerings.
- Control operational costs: Reduce advertising, logistics and labor expenses.
- Enhance product quality: Improve goods and services to boost customer retention.
- Diversify operations: Explore additional markets or platforms.
- Collaborate: Share knowledge with fellow sellers to navigate challenges collectively.