As social media platforms evolve beyond information sharing to become discovery, evaluation, and purchasing channels for consumers, a fundamental shift in business models is underway. TikTok, the globally popular short-video application, is rapidly encroaching on traditional e-commerce territory and posing a direct threat to social media giant Facebook.
1. TikTok's Rapid Growth in Social Commerce Penetration
TikTok's rise reflects multiple converging factors. eMarketer's latest projections reveal the platform's accelerating social buyer penetration and user engagement in the U.S. market, positioning it to surpass Facebook and YouTube as the new leader in social commerce.
TikTok has already overtaken Pinterest to become the second-largest social commerce platform in the U.S., trailing only Facebook. In 2022, TikTok's buyer base grew 72.3% to 23.7 million, with projections reaching 33.3 million by year-end—covering 14% of U.S. social commerce users aged 14+. While this represents approximately half of Facebook's buyer count, it significantly exceeds Pinterest's 16 million.
User engagement metrics further demonstrate TikTok's appeal. American adults currently spend 46 minutes daily on both YouTube and TikTok, with Netflix leading at 60 minutes. By 2024, TikTok's daily usage is projected to reach 48 minutes, surpassing YouTube. However, YouTube maintains an advantage in total users, with 235.7 million monthly active users expected in 2023 compared to TikTok's 102.4 million and Netflix's 172.2 million.
2. Explosive Growth in Social Commerce Sales
TikTok's expanding user base directly translates to sales growth. As more consumers adopt TikTok shopping, the platform's share of the U.S. social commerce market continues rising.
U.S. social commerce sales grew 34.4% to $53.1 billion in 2022, with projections reaching $70 billion this year. The market is expected to maintain over 20% annual growth through 2025, reaching $107.17 billion. McKinsey forecasts similarly strong growth, anticipating U.S. social commerce will reach nearly $80 billion by 2025—representing 5% of total e-commerce.
Globally, the social commerce opportunity appears even larger, with projections exceeding $2 trillion by 2025. This substantial potential continues attracting sellers to the space.
3. Meta's Strategic Shift and TikTok's Opportunity
Meta has recalibrated its commerce strategy, discontinuing certain shopping features on Facebook and Instagram to focus on shopping-related advertising. This pivot creates expansion opportunities for TikTok.
TikTok continues enhancing its commerce capabilities, including live shopping, product showcases, and shopping tags—enabling direct purchases during video viewing. These features streamline the purchasing process and improve conversion rates.
However, social commerce adoption faces challenges. American consumers remain hesitant about live shopping formats, requiring sellers to prioritize trust-building through product quality and customer service before expecting significant sales growth.
4. Challenges and Future Outlook
Despite notable progress, TikTok faces several social commerce obstacles:
- Trust concerns: Consumer skepticism regarding product quality and post-purchase support
- User experience: Balancing commerce integration with platform enjoyment
- Regulatory compliance: Adhering to consumer protection, data privacy, and advertising regulations across markets
Addressing these challenges requires TikTok to strengthen brand partnerships, implement robust quality control, provide reliable customer service, and ensure regulatory compliance. Continued innovation—including personalized recommendations, AR, and VR technologies—could further enhance the shopping experience.
The social commerce sector will likely maintain strong growth as technology advances and consumer behaviors evolve. As a current leader, TikTok appears positioned to capture greater market share, though established platforms like Facebook will continue competing aggressively. Ultimately, platforms that best meet consumer needs while delivering superior shopping experiences will prevail.