Trucking Rates to Rise As ELD Mandate Nears Shippers Warned

The upcoming ELD (Electronic Logging Device) mandate is poised to impact trucking freight rates. This analysis examines the effects of the ELD mandate on the trucking capacity market and how shippers can navigate potential freight rate increases and capacity shortages. It emphasizes the importance of shippers strengthening relationships with carriers and brokers, optimizing supply chains, planning ahead, and considering technology to improve transportation efficiency. By proactively addressing these challenges, shippers can mitigate the negative consequences of the ELD mandate and maintain a competitive edge.
Trucking Rates to Rise As ELD Mandate Nears Shippers Warned

Imagine being a freight manager during peak holiday season—orders are pouring in like snowflakes, yet anxiety grows as a new regulation threatens to dramatically increase transportation costs and destabilize supply chains. This is the reality facing shippers as the long-delayed Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandate takes effect December 18, requiring all trucks to install ELD equipment for stricter monitoring of drivers' working hours.

ELD: A Double-Edged Sword?

Undoubtedly, ELD implementation addresses a critical issue: truck driver fatigue. Excessive working hours have long been a road safety hazard. ELDs electronically record drivers' hours, replacing error-prone paper logs to better prevent speeding and ensure adequate rest. Proponents argue this will reduce accidents, save lives, and elevate industry safety standards.

However, opponents warn of unintended consequences. They contend ELDs will reduce truck productivity by rigidly enforcing driving hours, eliminating scheduling flexibility. Moreover, small trucking firms may struggle with ELD installation and maintenance costs, potentially forcing market exits that exacerbate capacity shortages.

"This regulation has two key aspects," said Mark Rourke, Executive Vice President and COO of Schneider National. "First, how well will people adapt? Moving from paper to electronic logs changes your business model. Second, how many independent drivers will leave the market?"

Tight Capacity Market: From Bad to Worse?

Even before ELD implementation, the U.S. trucking market faces severe capacity constraints from economic growth, rising consumer demand, and driver shortages. ELDs may intensify this as productivity declines could require more trucks to move identical freight volumes.

Most trucking executives and brokers anticipate 4-7% productivity losses. While large carriers like J.B. Hunt, Werner, and Schneider—having already implemented ELDs across massive fleets—claim the devices improve productivity, route optimization, and billing accuracy, smaller operators face different realities.

"The impact will concentrate on companies with 10 or fewer trucks," noted Transplace CEO Tom Sanderson. With 90% of trucking firms operating fleets of this size—the lifeblood of freight brokers—Sanderson warned: "Non-compliance could heighten spot market volatility."

Shippers: Bearing the Brunt?

Capacity shortages and productivity declines ultimately translate to higher freight rates. Brokers may struggle to find available trucks, forcing shippers to pay premium prices for timely deliveries. While brokers might profit in tight markets, increased costs ultimately fall on shippers.

"Financially, brokers perform well in constrained markets," Sanderson observed. "But ultimately, shippers absorb rate increases—not brokers."

Last-Minute Push for Delay

Industry groups like the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) continue lobbying to delay or rescind the mandate, arguing ELDs impose undue burdens on small businesses and may worsen driver shortages. A 31-organization coalition including agricultural, livestock, and utility contractors supports Rep. Brian Babin's bill (H.R. 3282) to postpone implementation until December 2019.

"ELD mandates broadly impact industries beyond traditional trucking," said OOIDA Executive Vice President Todd Spencer, citing unresolved technical issues like device certification, rural connectivity, cybersecurity, and law enforcement data access.

Safety Advocates Stand Firm

Proponents maintain ELDs are vital for road safety. The Trucking Alliance's Lane Kidd stated ELDs will "undoubtedly reduce truck driver fatigue" and help law enforcement verify compliance, noting Congressional and judicial support for the rule.

"ELDs will reduce large truck accidents on our highways," Kidd asserted. "OOIDA ignores these facts, endangering members whose trucks may be sidelined for non-compliance."

Brokers: Opportunity in Chaos?

Some brokers see ELDs enhancing their value in securing tight capacity. Tucker Company Worldwide President Jeff Tucker noted market disruptions create opportunities for relationship-driven brokers.

"Shippers should cultivate trusted broker networks and core carriers to weather this storm," Tucker advised. "Those without diversified partnerships will pay dearly when ELDs take effect."

Preparing for the ELD Era

As shippers brace for ELD impacts, experts recommend:

  • Strengthening carrier/broker relationships to secure capacity
  • Optimizing supply chains through freight consolidation and multimodal solutions
  • Advanced planning to avoid peak-rate bookings
  • Leveraging technology like Transportation Management Systems for route optimization

The ELD mandate will undoubtedly reshape trucking—improving safety while potentially raising costs and constraining capacity. Shippers adopting proactive strategies will be best positioned to compete in this evolving landscape.