As global economic conditions continue to evolve, the logistics industry faces both opportunities and challenges during the critical year-end peak season. The latest Cowen/AFS Freight Index provides comprehensive insights into truckload (TL), less-than-truckload (LTL), and parcel shipping market dynamics.
Index Methodology and Coverage
Launched in October 2021, the Cowen/AFS Freight Index combines AFS Logistics' extensive shipping data with machine learning analysis to track pricing trends across key transportation sectors:
- Less-than-truckload (LTL): Shipping method combining multiple shippers' partial loads
- Truckload (TL): Dedicated transportation for full trailer loads
- Parcel shipping: Including both expedited and ground services
Key Market Trends
LTL Market Dynamics
The Q3 LTL rates increased 2.2% year-over-year, primarily due to Yellow Corporation's bankruptcy. Approximately two-thirds of this growth came from higher linehaul rates as remaining carriers absorbed Yellow's freight volume. Fuel surcharges rose nearly 20% from Q2.
Parcel Shipping Trends
Ground parcel rates experienced their first annual decline since 2019 in Q3, with average discounts increasing by one percentage point. Despite anticipated seasonal surcharges, Q4 ground rates are projected to decline 0.7% year-over-year.
Truckload Market Stability
The truckload market remained relatively stable, with per-mile rates increasing 4.4% in Q3 compared to the January 2018 baseline. Increased short-haul shipments helped reduce per-shipment costs, potentially reflecting shippers' network optimization efforts.
Industry Outlook
AFS CEO Tom Nightingale noted that while recent disruptions like the UPS-Teamsters negotiations and Yellow's closure created challenges, softening demand has provided some relief for shippers. The index projects modest seasonal adjustments across all sectors during Q4.