Imagine being a decision-maker in the freight market, facing daily challenges of shifting policies, unpredictable consumer demand, and mountains of complex data. The landscape resembles dense fog—visibility low, every step fraught with uncertainty. In this environment, what's most needed is a compass, a beacon that can cut through the haze and provide direction.
The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, jointly published by TD Cowen Inc. and AFS Logistics LLC, serves as precisely such a navigational tool. This quarterly report analyzes how tariff policies and consumer confidence impact various freight modes, offering data-driven insights for strategic planning.
Methodology: Data Science Meets Market Intelligence
The index leverages AFS Logistics' extensive freight data across transportation modes, enhanced by machine learning analytics. The methodology combines:
- Historical freight patterns from millions of shipments
- Real-time macroeconomic indicators
- Carrier rate adjustments including General Rate Increases (GRIs)
- Microeconomic factors specific to transportation sectors
AFS Logistics CEO Andy Dyer notes: "Tariff discussions dominate boardroom conversations. When combined with macroeconomic uncertainty, this creates the cautious sentiment permeating today's market. Our index helps quantify these impacts."
Key Sector Findings
Truckload: Inventory Pull-Forward Effects
The Q2 2025 truckload index showed per-mile rates 5.9% above the January 2018 baseline, driven by:
- Pre-tariff inventory building
- Wildfire and natural disaster disruptions
- Ongoing carrier capacity adjustments
Notably, the shift toward shorter hauls (≤500 miles) reduced total shipment costs to just 5% above pre-pandemic levels—the lowest differential in three years, signaling broader regionalization trends.
Parcel: Evolving Pricing Strategies
The era of predictable annual rate increases has ended. Over the past 18 months, carriers have implemented:
- More frequent, targeted price adjustments
- New zone-based surcharges
- Administrative fee increases (despite falling diesel prices)
Q1 2025 saw a 5.2% sequential cost increase per package, while volume growth remains challenged by ground network optimization and new competition like USPS's Priority Next Day service expansion.
LTL: Pricing Resilience Amid Headwinds
Less-than-truckload pricing demonstrated surprising strength in Q1:
- 1.5% quarterly cost increase per shipment
- 0.5% year-over-year growth
- Six consecutive quarters of positive annual comparisons
This occurred despite shorter average hauls and lighter shipment weights, with GRIs and fuel surcharges providing upward pressure.
Strategic Implications
The index reveals several critical market shifts:
- Supply chain regionalization continues accelerating, with implications for warehouse networks
- Parcel pricing volatility requires shippers to monitor carrier changes more frequently
- LTL market discipline persists despite softer demand conditions
While the index provides unparalleled visibility, users should consider its limitations—primarily its U.S. focus and reliance on historical patterns that may not capture sudden market shocks.
Future Developments
Potential enhancements to the index framework include:
- Expanded international data sources
- Advanced predictive modeling techniques
- Customized reporting for specific industries
- Global benchmarking capabilities
As freight markets grow increasingly complex, tools like the TD Cowen/AFS Index become essential for cutting through the noise and identifying meaningful patterns. In an era of constant disruption, data-driven decision-making separates market leaders from the rest.