Mexico's e-commerce market, once racing forward like a high-performance sports car, has hit unexpected turbulence due to recent policy changes. New e-commerce tax regulations have transformed the previously smooth logistics landscape into a congested and fiercely competitive arena. Despite rising costs, slower delivery times, and stricter oversight, logistics giant DHL is accelerating its investments in Mexico—a strategic move that reveals intriguing business logic.
Policy Shift on Low-Value Parcels: A Double-Edged Sword
The most significant change in Mexico's e-commerce sector has been the overhaul of its "minimis" policy for low-value goods. Previously exempt from tariffs and inspections, these packages now face an 18% duty that was subsequently increased to 33.5%. The new rules not only drive up product prices but also require consumers to provide detailed personal information—including phone numbers, tax IDs (RFC), addresses, and full names—for customs clearance, creating substantial friction for cross-border e-commerce.
Antonio Arranz, CEO of DHL Express Mexico, acknowledges that the policy initially caused confusion and frustration among consumers. However, the market response proved surprisingly resilient. Despite higher prices, most shoppers continued their purchasing habits. This consumer steadfastness convinced DHL of Mexico's underlying potential, reinforcing its commitment to the market even as operating conditions deteriorated.
US-Mexico Logistics Upheaval: Maintaining Strategic Focus
Simultaneously, the United States tightened its own low-value parcel policies, while Mexico's postal service temporarily suspended shipments to the U.S., compounding cross-border logistics uncertainty. For DHL, which relies heavily on US-Mexico trade flows, these developments presented significant challenges. Yet the company remained undeterred, banking on the $800 billion annual trade volume between the two nations as an unshakable foundation. "Trade patterns may shift, but commerce endures," Arranz noted—a perspective that reflects DHL's deep understanding of regional trade fundamentals.
Counter-Cyclical Expansion: Targeting Underserved Markets
Confident in Mexico's long-term prospects, DHL is expanding against market headwinds. This year alone, the company added 100 service points across Mexico, bringing its total network to 850 locations—with particular focus on smaller cities and rural areas. By increasing delivery frequency from weekly to daily in these regions, DHL has dramatically improved customer experience. The strategy proved successful during Mexico's "Buen Fin" shopping festival, when DHL's e-commerce parcel volume surged 26% year-over-year.
Aerial Ambitions: The AIFA Airport and Multimodal Hub
Beyond terrestrial networks, DHL is making strategic aviation investments. When Mexican authorities mandated companies to relocate from Mexico City International Airport (AICM), DHL became the first logistics operator to transition to the new Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA). There, it expanded operations from 1,500 square meters to 10,000 square meters while negotiating a ten-year concession extension. The company also activated its Zumpango-Nextlalpan logistics park, creating an integrated air-ground transportation hub that significantly enhances efficiency.
Navigating Challenges: The Mexican Consumer's Enduring Passion
Despite mounting pressures—shorter regulatory cycles, rising compliance costs, and complex tracking requirements for low-value shipments—DHL remains bullish on Mexico. Arranz attributes this optimism to Mexican consumers' unwavering enthusiasm for shopping, which continues to drive market growth. This consumer vitality forms the cornerstone of DHL's strategic planning, demonstrating that even in challenging environments, focused execution can unlock significant opportunities.
By expanding in underserved regions, investing in aviation infrastructure, and building multimodal capabilities, DHL is positioning itself to capitalize on Mexico's e-commerce evolution. The company's strategic choices reflect both confidence in the market's long-term potential and an ability to maintain focus amid complexity. Whether this bet pays off will become clear in the coming years.