As American families enjoyed Thanksgiving reunions, the nation's rail network—an often invisible economic artery—continued quietly pulsing with freight movements. The latest data from November 2025 reveals a curious dichotomy in U.S. rail freight: traditional carload traffic saw modest gains while intermodal shipments, representing the future of freight transport, experienced declines.
Market Overview: A Tale of Two Metrics
The week ending November 29, 2025, presented a complex picture for U.S. rail freight:
- Carload Volume: Totaled 197,955 units, up 4.3% year-over-year. While showing healthy growth, this marked a sequential decline from 223,101 units (November 15) and 234,592 units (November 22), potentially reflecting Thanksgiving holiday effects but warranting monitoring for potential downturns.
- Intermodal Volume: Reached 234,860 containers and trailers, down 6.5% year-over-year. Despite the annual decline, figures slightly exceeded mid-November levels, suggesting possible short-term adjustment rather than structural decline.
Carload Breakdown: Sectoral Variations Emerge
Analysis of the 10 major commodity categories tracked by the Association of American Railroads (AAR) shows six sectors growing while four declined:
Growth Leaders:
- Coal: Increased by 4,818 carloads to 56,972 units, likely driven by energy price fluctuations and seasonal heating demand, though facing long-term renewable energy pressures.
- Nonmetallic Minerals: Rose 2,858 carloads to 23,353 units, potentially indicating resilience in infrastructure and construction sectors.
- Grain: Grew 2,424 carloads to 21,019 units, benefiting from global food demand but vulnerable to geopolitical and climate risks.
Declining Sectors:
- Miscellaneous Carloads: Fell 1,046 units to 6,769, possibly signaling broader economic cooling or consumer pattern shifts.
- Forest Products: Decreased 849 carloads to 6,848 units, potentially reflecting housing market adjustments or wildfire impacts.
- Chemicals: Dropped 679 carloads to 29,583 units, possibly indicating manufacturing slowdowns or regulatory pressures.
Intermodal Slowdown: Temporary or Structural?
The intermodal decline raises questions about this critical growth segment's trajectory. Contributing factors may include:
- Resolving port congestion reducing rail diversions
- Resurgent trucking competition amid improved capacity and fuel prices
- Cooling consumer demand affecting import volumes
Year-to-Date Perspective: Underlying Strength Persists
Despite recent volatility, cumulative 2025 data through 48 weeks shows sustained growth:
- Carloads: 10,660,309 units (+1.8%)
- Intermodal: 12,997,055 units (+1.9%)
This suggests fundamental market health supported by economic expansion, infrastructure investment, and rail efficiency advantages.
Forward Outlook: Navigating Crosscurrents
The rail freight sector faces both challenges and opportunities:
Challenges:
- Potential economic downturns
- Persistent supply chain disruptions
- Environmental compliance costs
Opportunities:
- Federal infrastructure spending
- Automation and digitalization advances
- Sustainability advantages in low-carbon logistics
The November data paints a nuanced picture of U.S. rail freight—showing resilience in traditional sectors while raising questions about intermodal growth. Industry stakeholders must balance cautious monitoring of near-term signals with strategic positioning for long-term structural shifts.