The global supply chain has endured unprecedented turbulence in recent years—from COVID-19 lockdowns and port congestion to geopolitical conflicts. However, new data suggests a gradual return to normalcy. Descartes Systems Group's latest Global Shipping Report provides critical insights into this recovery.
1. The Descartes Report: A Barometer for Supply Chain Health
Since its August 2021 debut, the Waterloo-based company's monthly report has become an essential resource for assessing global trade flows. By tracking container volumes, transit times, and delays at major ports, it offers actionable intelligence for businesses and policymakers.
1.1 Methodology and Data Sources
The report aggregates:
- Container throughput statistics from port authorities
- Real-time vessel tracking data
- Proprietary logistics software analytics
Advanced time-series analysis helps predict future trends, while regression models assess factors contributing to port delays.
1.2 Limitations
The report focuses primarily on major ports, potentially overlooking regional trade dynamics. Data lags and seasonal fluctuations may also affect accuracy.
2. U.S. Imports: Seasonal Surge Masks Long-Term Challenges
July saw a 5.1% monthly increase in U.S. container imports (2.19M TEUs), aligning with pre-pandemic seasonal patterns as retailers stock holiday inventory. However, year-over-year volumes declined 13.6%, remaining 0.5% below July 2019 levels.
2.1 Growth Analysis
The current recovery pace (5.1% monthly growth) exceeds 2021-22 rates (2.0-2.1%), suggesting strengthening momentum. Yet persistent headwinds like slowing global growth and trade policy shifts continue to pressure import volumes.
3. Port Efficiency: Transit Times Improve Amid Labor Concerns
Despite rising imports, average port processing times neared record lows. While Canadian West Coast labor disputes recently resolved, U.S. West Coast negotiations remain unresolved—a critical risk factor.
4. Regional Port Performance: East Coast Gains Momentum
Among top U.S. ports:
- Savannah (+47,900 TEUs) and New York/New Jersey (+43,169 TEUs) led growth
- Los Angeles suffered a 15.9% decline (-68,874 TEUs)
West Coast ports' market share fell to 38.3% as shippers diverted cargo eastward.
5. China Trade: Slower Growth Maintains Dominance
Chinese imports rose 4.7% monthly to 819,837 TEUs, representing 37.5% of total U.S. imports—slightly below February 2022's 41.5% peak. The moderated growth reflects shifting trade patterns and supply chain diversification.
6. Emerging Exporters: Germany and Korea Show Strength
Notable performers beyond China:
- German exports surged 12.8% (7,763 TEUs)
- Korean shipments grew 12.5% (11,418 TEUs)
7. Risk Outlook: Stability With Underlying Vulnerabilities
While port delays remain near historic lows, potential disruptions loom from:
- Ongoing West Coast labor negotiations
- Extreme weather events
- Geopolitical tensions
8. Expert Perspective
"July's import growth follows traditional seasonal patterns," noted Descartes EVP Chris Jones. "With transit times holding near recent lows, importers are seeing real improvements—though West Coast labor talks require monitoring."
9. Conclusion: Cautious Optimism Advised
Key takeaways:
- Seasonal recovery underway, but long-term challenges persist
- Operational efficiencies improving despite labor uncertainties
- Trade flows shifting toward East Coast ports
- Supply chain diversification accelerating
Businesses should maintain flexible logistics strategies while monitoring evolving conditions. The supply chain's path to full normalization remains fragile, requiring vigilant risk management.