As the dust settles from the year-end shopping frenzy, Amazon sellers find themselves on an emotional rollercoaster. While top sellers celebrate doubled sales and daily orders surpassing a thousand, small and medium-sized merchants face empty order books and mounting inventory. This stark contrast raises questions: Is the Black Friday and Cyber Monday phenomenon truly a feast for cross-border e-commerce, or merely a game for the privileged few?
Top Sellers Accelerate Ahead, Winner-Takes-All Effect Intensifies
"Amazon European sales quadrupled!" "Black Friday meets World Cup for a winning start!" Such triumphant headlines suggest another prosperous year for cross-border e-commerce. Data from retail analytics firm Adobe confirms this trend: U.S. consumers spent a record $9.12 billion online during this year's Black Friday, with projections suggesting Cyber Monday could reach $11.2 to $11.6 billion, potentially becoming the largest online shopping day in American history.
Electronics emerged as the clear winner, with online sales surging 221% above October's daily average. Toys and sports equipment followed closely, rising 285% and 218% respectively. Game consoles, drones, Apple MacBooks, Dyson products, and popular toys like Fortnite and Roblox dominated bestseller lists.
Yet beneath this apparent prosperity lies a harsh winner-takes-all reality. Dominant sellers leverage robust supply chains, brand recognition, and marketing prowess to monopolize market share. One seller lamented, "The faster top sellers grow during peak seasons, the larger their market share becomes, leaving little room for smaller competitors."
Historical patterns show Black Friday typically triples daily sales. A product averaging five orders might reach 15-25; thirty-order products could spike to 150-300; while flagship items moving 200 units daily might achieve 600-1,000. The higher the ranking, the greater the multiplier effect, further concentrating advantages among market leaders.
Small Sellers Face Mounting Challenges
In stark contrast to their prosperous counterparts, numerous small and mid-sized sellers encountered what many describe as a "Black Friday disaster." Complaints abound about unfavorable platform policies and external pressures compounding their difficulties.
The aggressive entry of TEMU, Pinduoduo's international platform, has disrupted Amazon's marketplace with prices often 90% lower than comparable Amazon listings. TEMU's "keep-the-item refund" policy further attracts budget-conscious shoppers, squeezing already thin margins for smaller Amazon merchants.
Persistent U.S. inflation has driven up costs while depressing consumer spending power. Even during peak shopping events, buyers demonstrate increased price sensitivity. Supply chain limitations further handicap smaller operators who lack resources for substantial inventory pre-orders, often missing sales opportunities when demand spikes.
Pathways to Survival: Precision Operations and Niche Competition
Facing these challenges, industry veterans recommend strategic adjustments:
- Advertising Optimization: Refine ad budgets and bidding strategies to stabilize rankings while preserving profitability.
- Inventory Management: Monitor stock levels closely and adjust promotions based on real-time demand.
- Market Specialization: Identify underserved niches, particularly in emerging trends like sustainability.
- Brand Development: Cultivate distinctive brand identities through social media and content marketing.
- Data-Driven Operations: Leverage analytics to optimize product listings and track competitor movements.
- Channel Diversification: Reduce Amazon dependence by developing Shopify stores or independent websites.
Specialized tools can assist with post-season inventory clearance, automatically adjusting pricing rules to avoid long-term storage fees.
The Long Game in E-Commerce
While Black Friday and Cyber Monday represent important milestones, they shouldn't define a seller's strategy. Sustainable success requires building genuine value through product innovation, brand equity, and customer experience rather than competing in destructive price wars.
As the seasonal frenzy subsides, the e-commerce landscape will normalize. Those embracing long-term thinking while addressing immediate challenges will be best positioned for future success.