If the past two years were defined by "stagnation" and "struggle" for the aviation industry, the dawn of recovery now shines increasingly brighter. As more countries lift travel restrictions, global air passenger traffic is accelerating toward pre-pandemic levels. However, numerous challenges remain before a full return to 2019's golden age.
Asia Leads Recovery While Northeast Asia Proceeds Cautiously
Thailand and Singapore recently eliminated all travel restrictions for vaccinated travelers, injecting vitality into Asia's aviation market. Despite Shanghai's ongoing lockdown, China's aviation sector showed signs of recovery with increased capacity. Northeast Asia emerged as the fastest-growing region, with week-over-week capacity growth reaching 10%—primarily driven by China, with Japan and Korea also contributing.
However, strict travel limitations between these three nations continue to constrain growth. Japan may soon double its daily international arrival cap from 5,000 to 10,000 passengers, but this marginal increase would have minimal market impact.
Global Capacity Approaches 90 Million Seats
Global airline capacity now stands at 88.5 million seats, a 3% weekly increase approaching the 90 million threshold. Should China's capacity return to 2021 levels, worldwide capacity could reach 95 million weekly seats. While this remains far below 2019's 109 million weekly seats, most markets show marked improvement year-over-year.
Future capacity planning reflects growing confidence, with airlines cancelling less than 1% of scheduled capacity for the coming quarter. Nevertheless, challenges persist—from regional fuel shortages to operational constraints—as the industry rebuilds from near-total shutdown. Current seat supply has increased 43% year-over-year, though intermittent market recoveries complicate planning efforts.
Three Regions Surpass Pre-Pandemic Levels
Notably, South Asia, Central Asia, and Central America have already exceeded 2019 capacity levels. South Asia leads with 8% growth, powered by India's 10% increase over pre-pandemic capacity and positive performances from Pakistan and the Maldives. Mexico drives Central America's recovery, while Kazakhstan anchors Central Asia's progress.
Western Europe shows strong rebound momentum, with weekly capacity tripling year-over-year to surpass 20 million seats—adding 340,000 seats this week alone. These markets demonstrate full recovery remains achievable.
Divergent Performance Among Major Markets
The top 20 national markets now account for 67.8 million seats—approximately 75% of global capacity. Collectively, these markets have recovered 84% of pre-pandemic capacity, representing 31% year-over-year growth but remaining 16% below 2019 levels.
The U.S. market maintains dominance despite a slight weekly decline, staying above 20 million seats while operating 9% below pre-pandemic capacity. China's recovery continues, though capacity remains over one-third lower than 2021 levels. Vietnam shows a 16% year-over-year decrease, possibly reflecting last year's overheated domestic market.
Low-Cost Carriers Outpace Legacy Airlines
Some airlines demonstrate remarkable recovery trajectories. Ryanair now operates nearly ten times more flights than last year, while easyJet follows closely with eightfold growth. Ryanair's current capacity exceeds 2019 levels by 14%, operating nearly double easyJet's scale and triple the capacity of legacy carriers like Air France and British Airways.
However, seven major airlines—primarily Asian carriers plus Canada's Air Canada/WestJet and European operators like SAS and Swiss—continue operating below 50% of normal capacity. Some operate at less than 25% of 2019 levels, raising doubts about their ability to fully recover before 2023's peak summer season amid intensifying low-cost competition.
As May approaches and summer travel season commences, airlines reporting Q1 results express optimism about record revenues potentially enabling debt repayment. While challenges persist, the industry's resilience suggests continued recovery momentum.