At the SMC3 JumpStart 2025 conference, Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen, engaged in a profound discussion with Jeff Berman, Editor of Logistics Management Group News. Drawing upon nearly three decades of industry experience, Seidl analyzed the freight market's trajectory—from macroeconomic trends to specific market dynamics, tariff impacts to technological innovations.
1. Freight Economy: Dawn Before Sunrise?
"We're experiencing the longest trucking downturn of my career," Seidl stated bluntly. He noted that the decline beginning in July 2022 has persisted unusually long, but signs suggest an imminent rebound. TD Cowen's quarterly survey reveals synchronized optimism among private carriers and rail shippers, with business growth expectations rising 50-80 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Most notably, respondents expressing confidence in the overall economy surged from 20%-30% to 60%.
2. Tariffs: The Butterfly Effect on Supply Chains
Tariff impacts remain significant, with Seidl observing that supply chain adjustments occur slower than anticipated, ultimately passing costs to consumers. Recent surveys indicate over 25% of shippers have front-loaded some freight, though cautiously—approximately 70% reported advance shipments between 0-10% of total volume.
3. 2024 Peak Season: A Mixed Recovery
Despite container volume surges at ports like Los Angeles, Seidl noted this hasn't translated to expected trucking sector vitality. The 2023 downturn remains fresh, compounded by holiday season logistical challenges—extended vacations and fewer working days between Thanksgiving and Christmas reduced shipping efficiency.
4. AI: The Future Engine of Logistics
Artificial intelligence and automation are fundamentally transforming logistics. Seidl emphasized AI's potential to reduce labor and insurance costs, while automation remains pivotal in ongoing ILA-USMX negotiations. These technologies promise substantial efficiency gains and operational cost reductions.
5. Nearshoring and Reshoring: New Supply Chain Alternatives
Seidl highlighted nearshoring and reshoring as enduring trends requiring time but attracting significant investment in Mexican and domestic U.S. supply chains. This movement is expected to stimulate cross-border logistics investments and boost carrier confidence long-term.
6. M&A: Accelerating Industry Consolidation
Logistics and freight sector mergers continue intensifying. Seidl anticipates increased 2025 M&A activity—both large-scale acquisitions and smaller organic growth-focused deals—further consolidating the competitive landscape.
7. Rate Cuts: A Housing Market Catalyst
Seidl analyzed how 2024 Federal Reserve rate cuts could stimulate housing markets—a critical freight demand driver. Historically, new home construction generates substantial freight volume, suggesting potential market upside if rates continue declining.
8. LTL vs. TL: An Evolving Dynamic
The discussion addressed shifting freight between less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload (TL) networks. Seidl explained this reflects narrowing price differentials making TL viable for certain LTL shipments. However, he noted this equilibrium may shift if TL rates rise as carriers expect, potentially redirecting freight back to LTL networks.
9. LTL and TL: 2025 Outlook
Seidl projects greater optimism for TL than LTL markets entering 2025, given their divergent cycles. While spot TL rates remain depressed, contract rates show modest 2%-3% increases with aspirations toward 3%-5%. Contrastingly, LTL pricing has remained strong for years, suggesting limited near-term improvement.
Seidl's analysis provides invaluable insights for navigating current freight market conditions and anticipating future trends. These perspectives offer critical guidance for strategic planning and investment decisions in an increasingly competitive logistics landscape.