As global trade navigates turbulent waters, geopolitical uncertainties loom large while consumer behavior continues to evolve in the digital age. For logistics companies, accurately charting their course for the upcoming peak season has become a critical challenge. Recently, senior executives from DHL, the world's leading express and logistics service provider, gathered for a strategic conference call titled "DHL US CEOs Share Peak Season Strategies and Trade Insights," offering their outlook and approaches for the 2025 peak season.
The meeting featured CEOs from DHL's four major business divisions: Scott Ashbaugh (CEO of DHL eCommerce Americas), Greg Hewitt (CEO of DHL Express US), Mark Kunar (CEO of DHL Supply Chain North America), and Tim Robertson (CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Americas), moderated by Mirella Muller, Global Head of eCommerce Retail & Fashion at DHL Customer Solutions & Innovation.
This conference went beyond internal strategy discussions, serving as a collective assessment of global economic trends and an in-depth analysis of future logistics patterns. From their respective business perspectives, DHL executives examined key peak season themes including tariff fluctuations, evolving consumer behavior, new procurement strategies, volatile shipping volumes, and shifting customer expectations. Their insights provide valuable perspective on understanding today's complex logistics environment and how companies can adapt to challenges while seizing opportunities.
Slowing Peak Demand: Challenges and Opportunities
Greg Hewitt of DHL Express US described the lead-up to the 2025 peak season as "persistently turbulent," citing geopolitical instability, shifting trade alliances, and regulatory changes as unprecedented challenges for the logistics industry.
Hewitt projected this year's peak season might underperform historical patterns. While DHL Express typically experiences 40-50% business growth between Q3 and peak season, this year's increase might only reach 20-25%. This forecast serves as a wake-up call for the industry, signaling transformation in traditional peak season models.
Yet challenges often bring opportunities. Hewitt emphasized that despite slower growth, shipping volumes would still exceed current levels. This means logistics providers must maintain adequate pickup/delivery resources, air cargo capacity, customer service staff, and—more crucially than ever—customs clearance teams to ensure operational continuity.
"This doesn't require massive hiring like before," Hewitt explained. "Although tariff adjustments and minimum threshold eliminations may decrease year-over-year volumes, we'll still see growth from current levels. We're fully prepared with trained staff and pre-positioned resources. Maintaining flexibility and agility will let us adapt to changes and ensure continuity during this critical period when clients generate most of their annual sales and profits."
This approach clearly demonstrates DHL's strategic thinking: optimizing resources, improving efficiency, and enhancing flexibility rather than blind expansion—a valuable model for other logistics providers.
DHL eCommerce Americas: Changing Client Mix Drives Growth
DHL eCommerce Americas begins peak season planning each July, focusing on client composition and identifying accounts expecting significant volume surges. CEO Scott Ashbaugh noted that while pharmaceuticals (historically the division's main cargo) show no seasonal spikes, the proportion of eCommerce clients with holiday-driven growth significantly impacts forecasts.
"This year, we're seeing more clients anticipating major holiday volume increases," Ashbaugh stated. "We project parcel volumes to more than double during peak weeks, especially around Cyber Monday. We've built flexibility to support this—currently 2,000 frontline staff will expand to 4,000, with additional warehouse space prepared. Larger average parcel sizes require more floor space and conveyor capacity. We're also coordinating early with DHL Aviation to secure airfreight capacity."
Ashbaugh highlighted reliability as their primary pillar: "Our reputation for dependable, cost-effective, sustainable eCommerce solutions stems from rigorous analysis. Given this year's client mix, we're preparing for substantial growth."
DHL Global Forwarding: Operating in the "Golden Age of Uncertainty"
Tim Robertson of DHL Global Forwarding described current market conditions as a "golden age of uncertainty," where tariff shifts fundamentally impact cost, complexity, and predictability dimensions.
Anticipating an atypical peak season (as normal peaks have already passed), Robertson explained their focus: "We're addressing cost, complexity and uncertainty by pre-positioning charter aircraft on new trade lanes like Vietnam-outbound and intra-America routes, while educating clients about our intermodal solutions and expanded route diversity. Strengthening customs operations ensures compliance, shipment visibility, and importer landed-cost clarity."
"Peaks will emerge—we're unsure which sectors or trade lanes—requiring extreme frontline flexibility to respond. Our team stands ready."
DHL Supply Chain North America: Agility as the Core Principle
Mark Kunar of DHL Supply Chain North America identified agility and flexibility as central themes for annual operations and peak planning. "Scalability matters as clients adjust demand based on priorities and supply chain developments," he noted.
"We maintain visibility across supply chain tiers using tools like My Supply Chain, while prioritizing communication with clients, operations teams, and employees about forthcoming needs—these are fundamentals," Kunar added.
Conclusion: Strategic Navigation Through Geopolitical Complexity
Across all divisions, DHL demonstrates proactive adaptation to global trade shifts and thorough peak season preparation. Despite moderated growth expectations, the company's agility, flexibility, and robust network position it to deliver reliable, efficient logistics services that help clients succeed in competitive markets.
Key takeaways from DHL's strategy include:
1. Monitoring Global Trade Shifts: Geopolitical instability, trade realignments, and regulatory changes profoundly impact logistics. Companies must track these developments and adjust strategies accordingly.
2. Understanding Client Mix Evolution: Different client segments have distinct logistics needs. Providers must analyze changing client portfolios and deliver customized solutions.
3. Enhancing Efficiency and Flexibility: Operational excellence and adaptability are competitive differentiators. Optimizing resources and maintaining agility ensures reliable service delivery.
4. Leveraging Technology: Digital tools boost efficiency and service quality in today's logistics landscape.
5. Prioritizing Communication and Collaboration: Effective logistics requires coordination across supply chain partners and internal teams.
In an era of global trade transformation, logistics companies face unprecedented challenges. Those that closely monitor market dynamics, focus on client needs, improve efficiency, embrace technology, and foster collaboration will thrive. DHL's 2025 peak season approach offers a valuable case study in navigating complexity while identifying opportunities—a model that may benefit the broader logistics industry.