The latest data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) paints a nuanced picture of the U.S. rail transportation sector for the week ending October 18, with traditional freight showing modest gains while intermodal traffic continues to weaken.
Traditional Freight: Steady Growth Amid Sectoral Divergence
U.S. railroads moved 224,244 carloads during the reporting week, marking a 0.3% year-over-year increase. While the growth rate appears modest, it represents resilience in the face of global economic headwinds. However, the figure shows a slight sequential decline from the previous two weeks' readings of 224,562 and 224,972 carloads respectively.
The sectoral breakdown reveals significant variations among commodity groups, with five of the ten major categories tracked by AAR showing positive growth:
- Nonmetallic minerals: Led growth with 33,517 carloads, up 3,253 year-over-year, reflecting continued strength in construction and infrastructure development.
- Metallic ores and metals: Increased to 20,355 carloads, up 1,461 units, benefiting from manufacturing recovery and global metal price trends.
- Chemicals: Reached 32,046 carloads, up 970 units, indicating sustained industrial activity.
Conversely, several categories showed notable declines:
- Grain: Fell to 21,011 carloads, down 2,364 units, potentially affected by agricultural market volatility and export dynamics.
- Miscellaneous freight: Dropped to 8,413 carloads, down 1,521 units, possibly signaling softening consumer demand.
- Coal: Declined to 57,604 carloads, down 1,057 units, continuing the long-term trend of energy transition.
Intermodal Traffic Faces Persistent Headwinds
The intermodal segment recorded 273,610 container and trailer units, representing a 4.8% year-over-year decrease. This continues a downward trend from the prior weeks' 273,900 and 278,566 units respectively.
Several factors may be contributing to this weakness:
- Ongoing global port congestion disrupting supply chains
- Competitive pressure from trucking for shorter hauls
- Signs of softening consumer demand for certain goods
Long-Term Trends Remain Positive
Despite recent mixed results, cumulative data through the first 42 weeks of 2025 shows overall growth in rail transportation. Total carloads reached 9,326,053 (up 2.0% year-over-year) while intermodal units hit 11,399,777 (up 3.2%), demonstrating the sector's continued importance to the U.S. economy.
AAR's recent industry analysis notes that September data showed similar patterns, with total carloads down 1.2% year-over-year but weekly averages exceeding earlier 2025 levels. Intermodal traffic similarly showed monthly declines but maintained strong cumulative growth of 3.5% through September, reaching the third-highest historical level since 2021.
The rail industry continues adapting to market changes through operational improvements, service diversification, and enhanced intermodal coordination while addressing sustainability challenges through cleaner technologies. These strategic adjustments position the sector to navigate current economic uncertainties while maintaining its vital role in national commerce.