New York — The latest data from global trade intelligence firm Panjiva reveals surprising resilience in the U.S. import market, with consumer demand remaining robust even during traditional seasonal slowdowns. While November imports declined slightly from October's record highs, volumes remained significantly above historical averages, underscoring both the strength of the U.S. economy and persistent consumer spending power.
Import Trends Defy Seasonal Expectations
Panjiva's data shows U.S. imports measured by TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) reached 2,854,305 containers in November, down 4.7% from October's peak of 2,995,176 TEUs. However, this still represents a 6.3% year-over-year increase. More strikingly, the cumulative import volume for the first eleven months of 2021 totaled 31,699,365 TEUs — a 19.6% surge compared to the same period in 2020.
Similarly, November shipment counts declined 5.8% month-over-month to 1,333,314 but showed a 13.6% year-over-year increase. The eleven-month total reached 14,129,936 shipments, up 20.8% from 2020.
"Even after seasonal adjustments, November's numbers demonstrate remarkable strength in U.S. imports," noted Eric Oak, Research Director at Panjiva. "The nearly 20% annual growth rate confirms structural changes in post-pandemic consumer behavior."
Shifting Consumption Patterns Drive Market Dynamics
Oak observed that while October typically represents the peak shipping month for holiday season goods, this year's November performance diverged from historical patterns, likely reflecting delayed orders and replenishment needs for popular products.
"Under normal circumstances, we'd expect November to begin showing seasonal declines," Oak explained. "Instead, the market continues operating within the same volatility band we've seen for months, with about 5% monthly fluctuations." He emphasized that current data shows no signs of imminent market shifts, though product mix changes reflect expected seasonal adjustments.
Reviewing 2021's performance, Oak called it "an extraordinary year," particularly noting record-breaking import volumes from March onward. "The 2021 holiday season has been no exception to this unprecedented import surge," he concluded.
Supply Chain Challenges Persist Despite Volume Fluctuations
Panjiva's analysis reveals that while import volumes have moderated slightly, supply chain congestion remains acute. Flexport's ocean timeliness indicators show transit times from Asia to U.S. inland destinations have increased 46.1% for westbound routes and 50.5% for eastbound routes since late 2020.
As of November 21, the average door-to-door transit time exceeded three months at 107.4 days — meaning current orders might not arrive until March or April 2022, while goods arriving now were likely ordered in July or August 2021.
These delays force businesses to invest more heavily in inventory maintenance and supply assurance, potentially exacerbating supply chain pressures as companies order additional goods to meet demand.
Sector-Specific Performance Highlights
Panjiva's industry breakdown shows varied performance across sectors:
- Non-essential consumer goods: Up 30.1% compared to November 2019, with leisure products (excluding toys) growing 4.5% year-over-year
- Textiles: Increased 21.5% year-over-year
- Home appliances, furnishings, and consumer electronics: Declined 12.9%, 16.4%, and 1.23% respectively
- Healthcare, essential consumer goods, and IT products: Fell 6.8%, 18.2%, and 8.9%
Strategic Implications for Businesses
Looking ahead, Oak suggests importers must begin planning 2022 inventory strategies. Most companies intend to increase stock levels while simultaneously addressing existing order backlogs. The Lunar New Year may provide the first opportunity for supply chain relief, with potential import declines offering clues about future trends.
Oak anticipates businesses will adopt more cautious inventory approaches, favoring "just-in-case" over traditional "just-in-time" models to mitigate supply chain disruptions and inflation risks. Panjiva data indicates corporate focus on supply chain, logistics, and inflation concerns has reached record levels, a trend likely to persist until clearer market signals emerge.
The data underscores that despite ongoing challenges, the U.S. import market continues demonstrating remarkable strength. Businesses must remain vigilant in monitoring market dynamics while implementing flexible supply chain strategies to navigate current challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities.