The latest DAT Freight & Analytics report reveals a complex picture of the U.S. trucking market as the holiday season approaches, with freight volumes declining while spot rates show unexpected resilience.
DAT Freight Volume Index: The Industry Barometer
The DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), considered the industry's benchmark, provides standardized monthly measurements of freight volume changes. Using January 2015 as a baseline (100), the index tracks dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed truckload freight across the nation.
October Volume Declines Across All Segments
- Dry Van TVI: 232, down 3% from September and 11% year-over-year
- Refrigerated TVI: 184, down 2% monthly but up 7% annually
- Flatbed TVI: 305, down 4% monthly but up 3% year-over-year
Spot Rates Defy Volume Declines
Despite falling volumes, spot rates showed surprising strength in October:
- Dry Van: $2.07 per mile (+$0.02 from September)
- Refrigerated: $2.48 per mile (+$0.04)
- Flatbed: $2.51 per mile (+$0.01)
Contract rates remained more stable, with dry van rates holding steady at $2.42 per mile for the third consecutive month, while refrigerated and flatbed rates saw modest increases.
Market Analysis: A "Very Weak Demand Story"
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo described the current market conditions as reflecting broader economic trends. "Shippers are working through inventories built earlier this year to mitigate tariff impacts and weak consumer demand," Adamo noted. "The traditional holiday shipping peak appears virtually nonexistent this year."
Adamo highlighted additional challenges from driver CDL-related visa and immigration issues that fluctuated throughout October. While September showed strong performance continuing into early October, the subsequent decline foreshadowed November's trends.
"Rates are barely up year-over-year, slightly below last year's levels," Adamo observed. "The late September to early October increase was capacity-driven, and once CDL enforcement concerns eased, rates retreated."
Looking Ahead: A Challenging Road to Spring 2025
Adamo warned of potential turbulence in the spot market through the remainder of 2024. "Any seasonal rate increases or capacity-driven expansions will squeeze broker margins," he said. "Without improvement, we may see increased bankruptcies among brokers and carriers who can't financially sustain until spring's potential recovery."
The analyst noted that while December typically outperforms November, last year's performance suggests this holiday season may fail to impress. "The next real opportunity for profitability may not come until spring 2025," Adamo concluded.