While August's U.S. truck freight market was shadowed by declining volumes and rates, September presented a more complex picture: continued volume declines accompanied by an unexpected slight uptick in rates. According to the latest Truckload Volume Index (TVI) from DAT Freight & Analytics, this paradoxical situation signals potential uncertainty ahead of the traditional peak season.
Understanding the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI)
The DAT Truckload Volume Index serves as a crucial barometer for the U.S. truck freight market. This index tracks monthly changes in actual truck pickups, standardized with January 2015 freight volumes as the baseline value of 100. This methodology effectively eliminates potential biases from new data sources, providing an accurate reflection of market supply-demand dynamics. The index covers three primary truck freight types: dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed.
Key September Market Data
DAT's data reveals several critical characteristics of the September U.S. truck freight market:
- Dry Van: TVI index at 234, down 3% month-over-month and 2% year-over-year, indicating weakening demand compared to both August and the same period last year.
- Reefer: TVI index at 184, showing a 7% monthly decline but a 2% annual increase, suggesting seasonal influences on refrigerated transport.
- Flatbed: TVI index at 307, the only equipment type with monthly growth (up 1%) and significant annual growth (9%), reflecting activity in construction and manufacturing sectors.
- Spot Rates: Nationwide averages showed modest increases: van at $2.05/mile (+$0.02), reefer at $2.44/mile (+$0.03), and flatbed at $2.50/mile (+$0.01), breaking previous downward trends.
- Linehaul Rates: (excluding fuel surcharges) mirrored spot rate movements with van up $0.02 to $1.63/mile, reefer up $0.03 to $1.99/mile, and flatbed up $0.01 to $2.00/mile.
- Contract Rates: Showed downward pressure with van flat monthly at $2.42/mile (-0.5% annually), reefer at $2.74/mile (+$0.02 monthly, flat annually), and flatbed at $3.06/mile (-$0.02 monthly, -0.8% annually).
Market Analysis
DAT analysts note that despite falling volumes, rising spot rates reflect complex supply-demand dynamics. DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo suggests September's price increases aren't demand-driven but rather a concerning phenomenon preceding peak season.
For carriers, Adamo notes that lower volumes with slightly higher rates might benefit some operators, but the "fewer loads chasing more trucks" scenario intensifies competition. He warns this isn't systemic change, and rates may correct downward.
Adamo predicts backhaul lanes will be more affected than headhauls, noting an inverse relationship between average rates and percentage changes—lower-rate lanes see bigger increases, suggesting localized capacity imbalances rather than broad demand growth.
Peak Season Outlook
Adamo expresses cautious pessimism about the coming peak season, citing September's port volume decline after August's strong performance. While expecting weak seasonal volumes, he anticipates some carriers—particularly those with 5-10 trucks—might benefit from 20% backhaul rate increases.
Key Market Influencers
A deeper analysis reveals several critical factors shaping the truck freight market:
1. Consumer Spending & Retail Inventory
Consumer behavior directly impacts freight demand, with spending fluctuations affecting retailer inventory needs and consequently truck volumes.
2. Manufacturing Activity
Industrial production drives flatbed demand for materials transport, making manufacturing health a key indicator for this segment.
3. Housing Market
Construction activity influences demand for building materials transport, while home turnover spurs furniture and appliance shipments.
4. Fuel Prices
Diesel costs directly affect carrier operating expenses and subsequent rate adjustments to maintain profitability.
5. Capacity Availability
The truck supply-demand balance dictates rate volatility, with excess capacity depressing prices and shortages enabling increases.
6. Policy Impacts
Regulatory changes (emissions standards, hours-of-service rules) and infrastructure investments create operational and demand-side effects.
7. Seasonal Patterns
Traditional retail cycles create predictable volume fluctuations, with pre-holiday periods typically strongest.
Conclusions
September's contradictory U.S. truck freight market—declining volumes amid rising rates—reflects imbalanced supply-demand dynamics influenced by multiple economic factors. Market participants face continued uncertainty as consumer patterns, industrial activity, fuel costs, and regulatory environments evolve.
While Adamo maintains cautious peak season expectations, he notes operational efficiency and cost management will separate resilient carriers from those exiting the market. Brokers must optimize pricing strategies amid margin pressures. Ultimately, September's data serves as both a market snapshot and warning—success will favor operators who accurately interpret signals and adapt swiftly to shifting conditions.