The latest data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reveals a complex picture of the US rail freight industry during the week ending November 8, 2025. While carload freight volumes showed modest year-over-year growth, intermodal traffic experienced significant declines, highlighting divergent trends that are prompting industry analysts to reassess economic conditions and transportation sector dynamics.
Carload Freight: Steady Growth Amid Sector Volatility
Total US rail carload freight reached 224,651 units for the week, marking a slight 0.1% increase compared to the same period in 2024. However, this marginal growth represents a slowdown from previous weeks, with volumes declining from 227,209 carloads in the November 1 week and 226,748 in the October 25 week.
The AAR's ten major commodity categories presented a mixed performance. Nonmetallic minerals led growth with 32,939 carloads (up 3,753 units), while grain shipments showed strong momentum at 24,291 carloads (up 809 units). Miscellaneous freight also contributed to the positive trend with 8,469 carloads (up 659 units).
Several sectors faced declines, most notably motor vehicles and parts (down 1,436 carloads to 13,840 units) and metallic ores/metal products (down 1,355 carloads to 19,056 units). Coal shipments continued their downward trajectory with 57,352 carloads (down 1,207 units), reflecting ongoing shifts in energy markets toward cleaner alternatives.
Intermodal Traffic: Significant Declines Raise Concerns
Intermodal freight volumes presented a stark contrast to carload performance, with total containers and trailers falling 8.7% year-over-year to 268,842 units. The decline accelerated compared to previous weeks (269,719 units on November 1 and 272,940 units on October 25).
Industry experts attribute the intermodal downturn to multiple factors including port congestion, supply chain disruptions, increased competition from trucking, and broader economic uncertainties affecting shipping decisions.
Year-to-Date Performance Shows Growth Momentum Slowing
Despite recent volatility, cumulative data through the first 45 weeks of 2025 shows overall positive trends. Total carload freight reached 10,004,661 units (up 1.8% year-over-year), while intermodal volumes stood at 12,211,278 units (up 2.5%). However, growth rates in both categories have moderated compared to earlier in the year, suggesting potential headwinds for the rail sector.
Future Outlook: Balancing Challenges and Opportunities
The rail industry faces significant challenges including global economic uncertainty, labor shortages, and competitive pressures from other transport modes. However, growing emphasis on sustainable logistics and technological advancements in rail operations present opportunities for long-term growth.
Industry analysts emphasize that continued innovation in operational efficiency, service quality, and multimodal coordination will be critical for railroads to maintain competitiveness and support broader economic development.
The November 2025 data underscores the complex dynamics shaping US rail freight, with divergent trends between carload and intermodal traffic reflecting both sector-specific challenges and broader economic conditions. While year-to-date performance remains positive, moderating growth rates suggest the industry must navigate carefully through evolving market conditions.