Overview
U.S. rail freight volume and intermodal traffic both recorded year-over-year growth during the week ending October 4, 2025, according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). While the growth rates varied significantly, the overall trend suggests increased activity in certain sectors of the American economy.
Rail Freight Analysis
Overall Volume: U.S. railroads moved 224,972 carloads during the measured week, representing a marginal 0.002% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Though modest, this growth holds positive significance when viewed against recent weekly declines (228,903 carloads in the week ending September 27 and 228,609 carloads in the week ending September 20).
Commodity Breakdown: Among the 10 commodity categories tracked by AAR:
- Growth Leaders: Non-metallic minerals (+2,057 carloads to 31,710), chemicals (+1,841 carloads to 32,919), and motor vehicles/parts (+816 carloads to 16,154) showed the strongest gains, reflecting construction, manufacturing, and automotive sector activity.
- Declining Categories: Coal (-4,685 carloads to 56,252) saw the largest drop, likely due to energy transition trends. Other decreases included farm products (-376 carloads to 17,658) and petroleum (-265 carloads to 10,538), potentially influenced by seasonal factors and geopolitical developments.
Intermodal Traffic
Intermodal containers and trailers reached 278,566 units during the measured week, marking a robust 6.7% year-over-year increase. This growth significantly outpaced rail freight expansion, reinforcing intermodal's growing role in U.S. freight transportation. Despite recent weekly declines (283,739 units in late September), the sector maintains strong momentum.
Intermodal's advantages - combining rail's cost efficiency with trucking's flexibility for door-to-door service - continue driving adoption as supply chains grow more complex and demand for logistics efficiency intensifies.
Cumulative Annual Data
Through the first 40 weeks of 2025:
- Total rail carloads reached 8,877,247 (+2.1% year-over-year)
- Intermodal volume hit 10,852,267 units (+3.6% year-over-year)
Market Influences
The AAR's recent Rail Time Indicators report notes the industry continues "adjusting to evolving market conditions." Key factors shaping rail performance include:
- Macroeconomic conditions: Interest rates, inflation, and employment levels
- Sectoral shifts: Construction and manufacturing activity patterns
- Energy markets: Fuel prices and transition impacts
- Technology: Automation and IoT applications
- Geopolitics: Trade policies and global conflicts
September Performance
September data showed mixed signals:
- Rail carloads declined 1.2% year-over-year, though weekly averages (225,783) exceeded YTD levels
- Intermodal dipped 1.3% monthly but maintained strong annual growth (+3.5%), reaching the third-highest level on record
Future Outlook
The rail sector faces both opportunities and challenges:
- Growth drivers: Economic expansion, infrastructure investment, and environmental advantages
- Challenges: Competition from trucking, labor shortages, aging infrastructure, and regulatory pressures
The early October data suggests continued adaptation to dynamic market conditions, with intermodal growth particularly highlighting evolving supply chain requirements.