As 2025 begins, the US rail freight market presents a complex and nuanced picture. Against the backdrop of economic recovery, rail transportation—a critical logistics channel—directly reflects supply and demand dynamics across industries. What trends emerged in November's rail freight data, and what industry developments lie beneath the surface?
Overview
According to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR), the week ending November 29, 2025, showed mixed performance in US rail freight volumes. Carload freight increased year-over-year while intermodal traffic declined—a divergence that highlights varying transportation needs across commodity types and potential shifts in supply chain structures.
Carload Freight Analysis
During the reported week, US railroads originated 197,955 carloads, marking a 4.3% increase compared to the same period last year. Despite this growth, the figure fell below the previous weeks' volumes of 234,592 (November 22) and 223,101 (November 15), suggesting a moderating growth trend.
Among the 10 major commodity categories tracked by AAR, six showed year-over-year gains, indicating steady demand recovery in certain sectors:
- Coal: Volumes surged to 56,972 carloads, up 4,818 from 2024. This likely reflects increased electricity demand during winter and potential impacts from global energy market fluctuations.
- Nonmetallic Minerals: Reached 23,353 carloads, adding 2,858 year-over-year. Construction and infrastructure activity appear to be driving this growth.
- Grain: Totaled 21,019 carloads, rising by 2,424. This suggests stable agricultural production and strong domestic/international demand for US crops.
Conversely, several commodity categories experienced declines, potentially signaling structural adjustments or weakening demand:
- Miscellaneous Freight: Dropped to 6,769 carloads (down 1,046). The diverse nature of this category implies broad-based softness across multiple industries.
- Forest Products: Fell to 6,848 carloads (down 849), likely tied to real estate market volatility and reduced construction activity.
- Chemicals: Declined to 29,583 carloads (down 679), possibly due to global competition and domestic production adjustments.
Intermodal Traffic Analysis
In contrast to carload growth, intermodal container and trailer traffic decreased 6.5% year-over-year to 234,860 units. While this exceeded the prior weeks' volumes (234,592 on November 22; 223,101 on November 15), it remained below 2024 levels.
The intermodal decline may stem from multiple factors including port congestion, heightened trucking competition, shifting consumer spending patterns, and ongoing global supply chain realignments.
Year-to-Date Performance
Through the first 48 weeks of 2025, US railroads originated 10,660,309 carloads (up 1.8%) and 12,997,055 intermodal units (up 1.9%). These cumulative figures indicate modest but positive overall growth in rail freight activity.
Economic Implications and Outlook
Rail freight volumes serve as key economic indicators. The divergent performance between carload and intermodal traffic reflects distinct supply-demand dynamics across industries and transportation modes. Growth in coal, nonmetallic minerals, and grain suggests strengthening demand in these sectors, while intermodal challenges highlight ongoing supply chain pressures.
Looking ahead, the US rail freight market will continue responding to macroeconomic conditions, energy prices, trade policies, and technological innovations. Rail operators must monitor market shifts closely, optimizing operations and service quality to adapt to evolving demands.
Conclusion
The November 29 data reveals a US rail freight market undergoing structural adjustments. Contrasting trends between carload and intermodal traffic demonstrate the complex interplay of industry-specific factors and transportation mode dynamics. Rail companies will need to analyze market developments thoroughly and implement flexible strategies to maintain competitiveness in this evolving landscape.