As Thanksgiving celebrations faded across the nation, the U.S. rail freight market presented a complex picture of growth and decline. New data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reveals that while carload traffic increased year-over-year during the week ending November 29, intermodal operations experienced a concerning downturn.
Carload Traffic: Coal, Minerals and Grain Lead Growth
The week saw 197,955 total rail carloads, marking a 4.3% increase compared to the same period last year. Though this growth rate was slower than the previous weeks' volumes of 234,592 (November 22) and 223,101 (November 15), the performance remained solid overall. Among the 10 major commodity categories tracked by AAR, six showed year-over-year gains, with coal, nonmetallic minerals, and grain emerging as the primary drivers.
Coal shipments showed the most significant jump at 56,972 carloads—an increase of 4,818 from 2024. Nonmetallic minerals followed closely with 23,353 carloads ( +2,858 ), while grain reached 21,019 carloads ( +2,424 ). These figures reflect sustained demand in energy, construction, and agricultural sectors.
However, not all commodities shared this positive trend. Miscellaneous freight, forest products, and chemicals all recorded declines. Miscellaneous carloads dropped to 6,769 ( -1,046 ), forest products fell to 6,848 ( -849 ), and chemicals decreased to 29,583 ( -679 ). Analysts suggest these declines may stem from seasonal factors, supply chain challenges, or shifting demand patterns in specific industries.
Intermodal: Growth Momentum Stalls
In contrast to carload gains, intermodal operations showed weakness during the same period. Total U.S. rail intermodal containers and trailers reached 234,860 units—a 6.5% decrease year-over-year. While this volume exceeded the previous weeks' counts of 234,592 (November 22) and 223,101 (November 15), the persistent downward trend suggests intermodal markets face mounting challenges.
Industry experts attribute the intermodal slump to multiple factors including port congestion, truck driver shortages, and broader economic uncertainties. Changing consumer spending patterns may also be reshaping demand for intermodal transportation.
Year-to-Date: Overall Growth Maintained
Despite recent mixed results, cumulative data through 2025's first 48 weeks shows continued expansion in U.S. rail freight. AAR reports 10,660,309 total carloads year-to-date ( +1.8% ), while intermodal containers and trailers reached 12,997,055 units ( +1.9% ).
These figures demonstrate that while facing headwinds, the U.S. rail freight market has maintained growth momentum in 2025. As a critical component of the national economy, rail performance remains closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Future trends will likely depend on multiple variables including economic growth, trade policies, energy prices, and supply chain efficiency.
Outlook: Navigating Challenges and Opportunities
Looking ahead, the U.S. rail freight sector faces both obstacles and potential. Global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and persistent supply chain issues may pressure freight demand. Conversely, infrastructure investments, technological innovation, and growing demand for sustainable transport solutions present new opportunities.
To address these dynamics, rail operators will need to continue investing in infrastructure, improving operational efficiency, and exploring innovative technologies and business models. Enhanced collaboration with ports, trucking companies, and other logistics providers could further strengthen overall supply chain reliability.
The 2025 rail freight landscape reveals nuanced economic patterns. Strong carload performance in coal and construction materials contrasts with intermodal softness, while year-to-date figures confirm overall expansion. Close monitoring of commodity-specific trends—from energy sector shifts to infrastructure development—will remain essential for understanding broader economic currents.