The latest data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reveals important trends in U.S. rail freight during the final week of November 2025, offering valuable insights into the nation's economic landscape.
Carload Traffic: Moderate Growth With Sector Variations
For the week ending November 29, 2025, U.S. railroads reported carload traffic of 197,955 units, marking a 4.3% increase compared to the same period last year. While slightly below the figures from mid-November, this maintains an overall upward trajectory.
Six of the ten major commodity categories showed year-over-year growth:
- Coal shipments surged by 4,818 carloads to 56,972 units, reflecting potential energy demand shifts
- Nonmetallic minerals increased by 2,858 carloads to 23,353 units, suggesting construction sector activity
- Grain shipments rose by 2,424 carloads to 21,019 units, indicating agricultural strength
However, three categories experienced declines:
- Miscellaneous carloads decreased by 1,046 units
- Forest products dropped by 849 carloads
- Chemicals declined by 679 carloads
Intermodal: Continued Challenges Amid Recovery
Intermodal container and trailer traffic totaled 234,860 units for the week, representing a 6.5% decrease year-over-year. While showing improvement from earlier November figures, this persistent decline suggests ongoing challenges in supply chain logistics, including potential port congestion and trucking capacity issues.
Year-to-Date Performance: Steady Expansion
Through the first 48 weeks of 2025, cumulative data shows:
- Total carloads reached 10,660,309 units ( +1.8% year-over-year)
- Intermodal units totaled 12,997,055 ( +1.9% year-over-year)
These figures indicate sustained recovery in rail freight despite sector-specific volatility.
Market Implications: Signals and Strategies
The data suggests several key economic insights:
- The coal shipment rebound may indicate energy market realignments
- Construction-related shipments point to infrastructure development
- Intermodal declines warrant attention to logistics bottlenecks
Businesses monitoring these trends should consider:
- Diversifying transportation modes to mitigate sector-specific risks
- Adjusting inventory strategies based on commodity flow patterns
- Monitoring energy and construction sector developments closely
The rail freight sector continues to serve as a valuable economic indicator, with current data reflecting both recovery momentum and ongoing market adjustments across different industries.