As Thanksgiving festivities wind down, the U.S. rail freight market reveals nuanced shifts. The latest data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) shows modest growth in carload traffic but declining intermodal volumes during the week ending November 29, casting uncertainty over the upcoming holiday season.
Carload Traffic: Coal and Minerals Drive Growth While Chemicals Lag
The weekly total reached 197,955 railcars, marking a 4.3% year-over-year increase. While notable, this growth pace slowed significantly compared to the previous weeks' totals of 234,592 (November 22) and 223,101 (November 15), suggesting potential headwinds in broader economic momentum.
Among the ten commodity categories tracked by AAR, performance varied markedly. Coal shipments led gains at 56,972 carloads (up 4,818 YoY), likely boosted by rising winter energy demand. Nonmetallic minerals followed with 23,353 carloads (up 2,858 YoY), reflecting sustained construction activity, while grain shipments rose to 21,019 carloads (up 2,424 YoY) amid strong agricultural exports.
Conversely, several sectors contracted: miscellaneous freight fell by 1,046 carloads to 6,769; forest products declined 849 to 6,848; and chemicals dropped 679 to 29,583 carloads—potential indicators of softening demand or supply chain constraints in these industries.
Intermodal Woes: Containers and Trailers Face Dual Decline
Intermodal volumes painted a contrasting picture, with combined container and trailer traffic falling 6.5% year-over-year to 234,860 units. Despite the decline, this figure still surpassed the prior two weeks' totals (234,592 on November 22; 223,101 on November 15), suggesting the sector may be experiencing temporary volatility rather than structural deterioration.
The intermodal downturn likely stems from multiple pressures including port congestion, trucker shortages, warehouse capacity limits, and shifting consumer spending patterns—all contributing to operational inefficiencies.
Annual Totals: Growth Persists Amid Uncertainty
Cumulative data through the first 48 weeks of 2025 shows the rail sector maintaining overall expansion, with carloads up 1.8% to 10,660,309 units and intermodal volumes rising 1.9% to 12,997,055 units. However, future trajectories remain clouded by global economic conditions, trade policies, energy price fluctuations, and persistent labor shortages.
Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Prevails
The rail freight landscape presents a complex mosaic—resilient carload volumes underscore traditional rail's staying power, while intermodal struggles reveal supply chain vulnerabilities. Industry participants are advised to monitor macroeconomic trends while investing in automation, digitalization, and sustainability initiatives to enhance long-term competitiveness.
Strengthening collaboration between railroads, ports, trucking firms, and warehousing providers could streamline intermodal operations, potentially mitigating current bottlenecks. Through such measures, U.S. rail freight may continue serving as a critical artery for economic activity despite prevailing challenges.