The North American intermodal freight market, often considered an economic barometer, is displaying concerning trends as recent data reveals declining volumes across multiple sectors. Intermodal transportation—the coordinated use of multiple transport modes like rail, truck, and ship—provides crucial insights into broader economic health.
November Data Reveals Market Contraction
According to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), November saw a 2.5% year-over-year decline in total intermodal volume. This contraction reflects weakening domestic demand across North America:
- Trailer volumes: Plunged 30.8%, marking continued disfavor for truck-centric long-haul solutions
- Domestic containers: Dropped 3.6%, indicating softening intracontinental trade
Combined domestic equipment volumes fell 7.1%, suggesting significant market contraction. The sole bright spot emerged in international ISO containers, which grew 3.1%—a testament to global trade resilience despite economic headwinds.
Annual Trends Confirm Structural Shifts
Year-to-date figures through November show a 3.6% overall decline, mirroring monthly trends:
- Trailer volumes plummeted 23.3% annually
- Domestic containers eked out marginal 2.5% growth
- International containers declined 6.2%
Q3 Analysis: Glimmers of Stabilization
IANA's quarterly report revealed a 1.0% year-over-year decline in Q3—the smallest contraction in four consecutive quarters of decreases. Notable Q3 developments include:
- Trailer volumes hitting historic lows (-27.7%)
- Domestic container growth rebounding (+1.5%)
- International containers stabilizing (+0.1%)
The quarter's 48,000-unit reduction equated to less than one day's volume, with external factors like potential rail strikes and Hurricane Ian contributing to disruptions.
Industry Perspectives: Capacity vs. Demand
IANA President Joni Casey noted network capacity appears restored, but cautioned: "Quarterly volumes remain relatively flat, making it difficult to determine if this represents a new normal."
Larry Gross of Gross Transportation Consulting observed domestic declines reflect market demand issues rather than capacity constraints. He highlighted how 2022's peak intermodal activity actually occurred during March's downturn, with current growth limited to private domestic containers from firms like J.B. Hunt and Schneider National.
"Total domestic volume growth remains negligible," Gross emphasized. "What appears as growth among public intermodal companies actually represents market share shifts rather than volume expansion."
Structural Imbalances: Import Dependency
Approximately 60% of North American intermodal activity derives from imports, creating a persistent imbalance with weaker export volumes. This structural dependence leaves the market particularly vulnerable to import fluctuations.
Future Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities
The market faces multiple headwinds:
- Demand softness: Macroeconomic pressures and shifting consumption patterns
- Structural adjustments: E-commerce reshaping traditional supply chains
- External risks: Geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and climate events
Potential growth drivers include:
- Technology adoption: IoT, AI, and automation improving efficiency
- Collaborative models: Enhanced stakeholder coordination
- Sustainability: Intermodal's environmental advantages over trucking
Global Supply Chain Context
Intermodal serves as the connective tissue in global supply chains, enabling efficient multimodal movement of goods. As networks face increasing disruptions from trade conflicts to climate events, intermodal systems must prioritize:
- Digital transformation: Real-time monitoring and smart routing
- Green logistics: Reducing carbon footprints
- Resilience building: Withstanding external shocks
While current conditions suggest market cooling, intermodal transportation remains positioned to play an expanding role in North America's logistics ecosystem as economic conditions evolve.