When supply chain mechanisms falter, how should businesses respond? This critical question took center stage at the recent Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) EDGE conference in National Harbor, Maryland, where industry leaders from truckload, ground parcel, and less-than-truckload (LTL) sectors convened to dissect current market complexities and strategize for challenges through 2026 and beyond.
The session titled "State of Ground Transportation," moderated by Mike Levans, Group Editorial Director of Peerless Media LLC, featured insights from Jeff Tucker (CEO of Tucker Company Worldwide), Robert Persuit (Senior Director of Business Development at ShipMatrix), and Al Webb (Vice President of Sales at PITT OHIO). The panel examined regulatory uncertainties, market fragmentation, and capacity imbalances plaguing the industry.
Truckload Sector: Persistent Downturn and Regulatory Headwinds
Jeff Tucker described the truckload market as experiencing a "freight recession," presenting stark data comparisons from FMCSA records. Between May 2019 and May 2025, active carriers surged 30% (245,000 to 325,000) while driver counts rose 22% (2.6M to 3.2M). However, FRED Index data shows stagnant freight volumes, exacerbating overcapacity issues.
Tucker highlighted regulatory risks including proposed $100,000 H1B visa fees, potential CDL disqualifications for non-English speakers, and intensified state enforcement. "Effective implementation could remove 200,000-700,000 drivers from the current 3.2 million," he warned.
Ground Parcel: Market Turbulence and Regional Disruption
Robert Persuit characterized the parcel landscape as "crazy," citing seismic shifts: UPS-USPS last-mile partnership termination, Amazon volume reductions (targeting 125M annual package cuts by mid-2026), and FedEx's DRIVE cost-cutting initiative ($4B plus $1B additional reductions). USPS saw Q4 2024 package growth (16% volume, 25% revenue) evaporate by Q2 2025 (0.5% revenue gain, 6.6% volume drop).
Persuit emphasized market share erosion among majors (UPS/FedEx/USPS dominance fell from 86% in 2019 to 64% in 2024), with Amazon now leading daily parcel volumes and Walmart achieving 4B same/next-day deliveries in 2024. Regional carriers like LSO, Speedy, and OnTrac are gaining traction.
LTL Market: Fatigue and Technological Imperatives
Al Webb described LTL as "weary" but cyclical. "This prolonged freight recession will eventually break. Strategically positioned players will thrive, while others face existential challenges," he observed, noting the sector's outdated technology compared to parcel networks.
Webb predicted consolidation: "Today's 20% of carriers control 90% market share. Within five years, 15 may dominate. Significant tech investments will drive automation, back-office efficiencies, and enhanced customer experiences—the strong will strengthen further."
Path Forward: Balancing Capacity and Clarity
Tucker emphasized supply-demand rebalancing through coordinated federal/state enforcement. "Effective regulation would dramatically impact pricing. Shippers prioritizing reliable capacity through mutually valued relationships will secure preferential access as top carriers consolidate partnerships."
Strategic Priorities for Shippers
Key recommendations from the panel:
• Regulatory vigilance: Monitor policy changes affecting capacity
• Network optimization: Leverage regional carriers for flexibility
• Digital transformation: Enhance visibility and efficiency through technology
• Partnership cultivation: Develop long-term carrier relationships
• Dynamic pricing: Adapt strategies without compromising long-term viability