The U.S. trucking market in September presented a puzzling picture, with freight volumes declining while spot rates unexpectedly rose. This contradictory trend, analyzed in DAT Freight & Analytics' latest Truckload Volume Index report, reveals complex market dynamics affecting carriers and brokers alike.
Market Overview: Divergent Trends Across Equipment Types
The report tracks three primary equipment types, each showing distinct patterns:
Dry Van Sector
The TVI index for dry vans fell to 234, marking a 3% monthly decline and 2% annual decrease. This suggests weakening demand for consumer goods and retail merchandise, potentially reflecting broader economic cooling.
Refrigerated Trailers
Reefer volumes dropped more sharply, with the index at 184 (down 7% monthly but up 2% annually). Seasonal factors and shifting perishable goods distribution patterns likely contributed to this volatility.
Flatbed Market
Contrasting other segments, flatbed activity grew slightly to a 307 index (up 1% monthly and 9% annually), indicating continued strength in construction and industrial sectors.
The Rate Conundrum: Spot Market Defies Volume Trends
Despite volume declines, spot rates showed surprising resilience:
- Dry van: $2.05/mile (+$0.02 monthly)
- Reefer: $2.44/mile (+$0.03 monthly)
- Flatbed: $2.50/mile (+$0.01 monthly)
This divergence suggests structural market imbalances rather than demand-driven pricing. Contract rates told a different story, with most segments showing stability or slight declines, maintaining shippers' negotiating advantage in long-term agreements.
Expert Analysis: Market Rebalancing Underway
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo attributes these trends to post-pandemic market corrections:
September saw approximately 1,200 interstate carriers exit the market, matching January's record attrition rate. Adamo notes this contraction is creating localized capacity shortages that temporarily boost certain lane rates, particularly for smaller carriers with 5-10 trucks who may see 20% backhaul rate improvements.
Looking Ahead: A Cautious Peak Season Outlook
Traditional Q4 freight patterns appear uncertain. Early September port volume declines suggest potentially softer holiday demand. Adamo warns carriers to prepare for a "peak season that may not peak," advising operational adjustments to maintain profitability.
Strategic Recommendations for Carriers
Industry professionals should consider several adaptation strategies:
Operational Efficiency
Route optimization and fuel management become critical when rate growth lags behind costs. Implementing telematics and dynamic routing systems can yield significant savings.
Service Diversification
Expanding into value-added services (final-mile delivery, cross-docking) can offset core truckload volatility. Flatbed operators might explore specialized hauling, while reefer carriers could develop pharmaceutical-grade cold chain capabilities.
Technology Adoption
Transportation management systems (TMS) and automated freight matching tools help carriers navigate spot market unpredictability while maintaining service quality for contract customers.
Long-Term Market Fundamentals
Beyond immediate fluctuations, several structural factors will shape the trucking landscape:
Capacity Normalization
The market continues absorbing excess capacity from the 2020-2022 boom. Smaller fleets and owner-operators remain particularly vulnerable to prolonged soft market conditions.
Regulatory Environment
Pending safety regulations (electronic logging device enforcement, speed limiter mandates) and emissions standards may further impact operational costs and available capacity.
Economic Crosscurrents
Industrial production trends, consumer spending patterns, and inventory management strategies will collectively determine freight demand through 2024.
The DAT Truckload Volume Index provides critical visibility into these complex market dynamics, offering data-driven insights to inform strategic decision-making across the transportation ecosystem.