The U.S. truck freight market presented a complex landscape in September 2023, with declining shipment volumes contrasting against rising spot rates. This paradoxical situation has become a focal point for logistics professionals analyzing market trends through DAT Freight and Analytics' Truckload Volume Index (TVI).
1. Market Overview: Declining Volume, Rising Rates
September's data revealed contradictory movements in key metrics:
- Volume Decline: Following August's downturn, freight volumes continued their downward trajectory across most equipment types.
- Rate Increase: Spot market rates defied expectations by showing modest gains, creating uncertainty about traditional seasonal patterns.
2. Equipment-Specific Performance
The TVI breakdown shows divergent trends across equipment categories:
Dry Van
Index: 234 (3% monthly decrease, 2% annual decrease) - The market's largest segment shows sustained weakness.
Reefer
Index: 184 (7% monthly decrease, 2% annual increase) - Seasonal fluctuations mask long-term growth potential in temperature-controlled transport.
Flatbed
Index: 307 (1% monthly increase, 9% annual increase) - Outperforming other segments, likely tied to infrastructure and manufacturing activity.
3. Pricing Dynamics
Rate movements varied significantly by pricing mechanism:
- Spot Rates: Nationwide averages rose slightly (Dry Van: $2.05/mile +$0.02; Reefer: $2.44/mile +$0.03; Flatbed: $2.50/mile +$0.01)
- Contract Rates: Showed downward pressure (Dry Van: $2.42/mile flat monthly, -0.5% annually)
4. Expert Analysis: A Demand-Disconnected Market
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo characterizes the situation as "inflation without wage growth," where rate increases stem from capacity imbalances rather than genuine demand growth. This creates challenges for both brokers and carriers:
- Brokers face compressed margins without volume growth to offset costs
- Carriers experience a shrinking market where few gain disproportionate benefits
5. Backhaul Challenges and Market Outlook
The imbalance particularly affects long-haul backhaul lanes, with low-rate lanes showing higher percentage gains. Adamo anticipates difficult conditions continuing through peak season, citing:
- Declining port volumes after August's brief surge
- Ongoing carrier attrition (approximately 1,200 net revocations in September)
6. Strategic Recommendations
Industry participants should consider:
- Enhanced market monitoring and data analytics
- Operational efficiency improvements
- Dynamic pricing strategies
- Risk mitigation planning
- Service quality differentiation
The September data presents a nuanced picture of an industry in transition, where traditional indicators may not reliably predict future conditions. Market participants must balance short-term tactical responses with long-term strategic positioning in this evolving landscape.