The US trucking market, often regarded as a barometer of economic activity, presents a puzzling picture as it approaches its traditional peak season (typically October and November). September's data reveals contradictory signals that complicate market analysis, with DAT Freight and Analytics' latest Truckload Volume Index (TVI) offering key insights into current conditions.
DAT Truckload Volume Index: Measuring Market Pulse
The DAT TVI serves as a crucial indicator of US trucking activity, tracking monthly freight volume changes with January 2015 as its baseline (index = 100). The index covers three primary truck types:
- Van: General dry goods (consumer products, electronics, apparel)
- Reefer: Temperature-controlled shipments (food, pharmaceuticals, flowers)
- Flatbed: Oversized/irregular cargo (construction materials, machinery, steel)
September Data Analysis: Contradictory Trends
Van Sector: Weak Demand Amid Rate Increases
The van TVI fell 3% monthly and 2% annually to 234, signaling softening demand. However, spot rates rose $0.02/mile to $2.05, while contract rates remained flat at $2.42/mile (-0.5% YoY).
Reefer Sector: Volume Decline With Rate Resilience
Reefer TVI dropped 7% monthly but gained 2% annually (184). Spot rates increased $0.03 to $2.44/mile, with contract rates up $0.02 to $2.74/mile (flat YoY).
Flatbed Sector: Growth Amid Rate Volatility
Flatbed TVI rose 1% monthly and 9% annually (307), the only segment showing growth. Spot rates edged up $0.01 to $2.50/mile, while contract rates fell $0.02 to $3.06/mile (-0.8% YoY).
Market Interpretation: Demand-Supply Mismatch
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo notes the unusual phenomenon of rising rates amidst declining volumes suggests market distortions rather than genuine demand growth. Key factors include:
- Freight Imbalance: Regional demand disparities forcing empty backhauls
- Capacity Fluctuations: Reduced truck availability in specific markets
"Rate increases without volume growth resemble inflation without wage growth - problematic for brokers," Adamo cautioned, noting broker margins already at cyclical lows.
Peak Season Outlook: Cautious Expectations
Adamo anticipates a challenging peak season, citing September's port volume decline following August's surge. He notes:
- Potential benefits for small carriers (5-10 trucks) seeing 20% backhaul improvements
- Ongoing carrier attrition (-1,200 interstate authorities in September)
- Market correction likely as temporary conditions stabilize
Strategic Recommendations
Market participants should consider:
- Enhanced route optimization to minimize empty miles
- Cost control measures for fuel, maintenance, and labor
- Technology adoption (TMS/FMS systems)
- Long-term partnership development
Key Market Influencers
Future trends will depend on:
- Macroeconomic conditions (GDP, inflation, consumer confidence)
- Manufacturing activity (PMI, industrial production)
- Diesel price volatility
- Persistent driver shortages
- Regulatory changes (hours-of-service, emissions standards)
- Technological advancements (autonomous trucks, electric vehicles)
Future Outlook: Adaptation Required
The trucking sector faces challenges from economic uncertainty and operational pressures, but opportunities exist in:
- Data analytics implementation
- Sustainable transportation initiatives
- Workforce development programs
- Strategic collaborations
- Service diversification (cross-border, e-commerce logistics)