US Truckload Volume Falls but Rates Rise in September DAT

Published: 02/04/2026
Truckload Freight Market Analysis DAT Index
The US truckload freight market in September showed a mixed picture: volumes declined while rates slightly increased. The DAT Index indicated a simultaneous drop in freight volume and rise in rates, reflecting a balance between weak demand and capacity adjustments. Analyst Ken Adamo suggests the rate increase isn't demand-driven, posing challenges for the peak season. Smaller carriers may benefit from rising backhaul rates. Market participants need to closely monitor these dynamics and adapt their strategies accordingly. The situation calls for careful observation and flexible approaches in this evolving market.
US Truckload Volume Falls but Rates Rise in September DAT

The U.S. trucking market presents a complex landscape as it enters the traditional peak season, with DAT's September Truckload Volume Index revealing contradictory signals of declining volumes amid slight rate increases. This paradoxical situation demands careful analysis for brokers navigating Q4.

September Market Mirror: A Reflection of Contradictions

The latest DAT Freight and Analytics report paints a nuanced picture of the trucking sector. While spot rates showed modest gains across all equipment types, overall freight volumes declined—a marked contrast to August's across-the-board decreases in both metrics.

Key DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) Findings

The TVI, benchmarked to January 2015 levels (100), provides crucial market insights:

  • Dry Van: TVI fell to 234 (down 3% monthly, 2% annually)
  • Reefer: Dropped to 184 (7% monthly decrease, 2% annual increase)
  • Flatbed: Rose to 307 (1% monthly gain, 9% annual growth)

This equipment-specific divergence suggests varying sector dynamics, with flatbed showing unexpected resilience while dry van markets signal weakening consumer demand.

Spot Rate Movements: A False Dawn?

National average spot rates (including fuel surcharges) showed modest gains:

  • Dry van: $2.05/mile (+$0.02)
  • Reefer: $2.44/mile (+$0.03)
  • Flatbed: $2.50/mile (+$0.01)
"These rate increases aren't demand-driven but reflect freight imbalances and available capacity shifts," cautioned DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo. "It's like inflation without wage growth—concerning for brokers facing squeezed margins without corresponding volume increases."

Contract Rates: The Long-Term Barometer

Contract pricing reveals underlying market pressures:

  • Dry van: $2.42/mile (flat monthly, down $0.50 annually)
  • Reefer: $2.74/mile (+$0.02 monthly, flat annually)
  • Flatbed: $3.06/mile (-$0.02 monthly, down $0.80 annually)

The annual declines in dry van and flatbed contract rates suggest intensified competition and reduced pricing power for carriers.

Q4 Outlook: Tempered Expectations

Adamo's analysis suggests a cautious approach to peak season expectations:

  • Port volumes declined post-August highs
  • Carrier attrition continues (-1,200 net interstate authorities in September)
  • Potential for select small carriers (5-10 trucks) to benefit from backhaul opportunities

The analyst warned: "We'll likely see continued carrier exits before the market finds equilibrium. The current environment doesn't support systemic, broad-based rate increases."

Strategic Recommendations for Brokers

In this challenging environment, brokers should consider:

  1. Market Monitoring: Track TVI, spot/contract rates, and equipment-specific trends daily
  2. Operational Agility: Adjust lane strategies based on real-time data
  3. Risk Management: Avoid overextension amid uncertain demand
  4. Technology Adoption: Leverage digital tools for efficiency gains
  5. Small Carrier Partnerships: Collaborate with 5-10 truck fleets for backhaul opportunities

The current market requires brokers to balance short-term operational adjustments with long-term strategic planning, particularly in equipment specialization and technological capabilities.

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