The latest Truckload Volume Index report from DAT Freight and Analytics reveals a complex and nuanced picture of the U.S. trucking market in September. Following declines in both volume and rates in August, September presented a more complicated divergence—while overall market conditions remained fundamentally unchanged.
DAT Truckload Volume Index: A Key Market Pulse Indicator
The DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) measures changes in freight volumes picked up during the month. By standardizing data for dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed shipments—with January 2015 as the baseline (index=100)—the index eliminates potential biases from new data sources, providing a more accurate reflection of market realities.
Key September Market Findings
DAT's report provides crucial insights into September's trucking market through these key metrics:
- Dry Van : TVI at 234, down 3% month-over-month and 2% year-over-year
- Refrigerated : TVI at 184, down 7% monthly but up 2% annually
- Flatbed : TVI at 307, up 1% monthly and 9% yearly
- National average spot rates : Showed widespread increases—dry van at $2.05/mile (+$0.02), reefer at $2.44/mile (+$0.03), and flatbed at $2.50/mile (+$0.01)
- Linehaul rates (excluding fuel surcharges) : Mirrored broker-carrier spot rate trends—dry van up $0.02 to $1.63/mile, reefer up $0.03 to $1.99/mile, flatbed up $0.01 to $2.00/mile
- Contract rates : Displayed declines—dry van at $2.42/mile (flat monthly, down 0.5% annually), reefer at $2.74/mile (+$0.02 monthly, flat annually), flatbed at $3.06/mile (-$0.02 monthly, down 0.8% annually)
"Rates Up, Volume Down": Underlying Market Concerns
Despite declining volumes, spot rates experienced modest increases. DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo notes this September rate rise wasn't demand-driven—a particularly concerning trend just before the traditional peak season (October-November). He attributes the rate increases primarily to freight imbalances and available capacity changes rather than overall volume growth.
"Rate increases without corresponding volume growth isn't a positive sign," Adamo explained. "It's like inflation without wage growth—a worrying development." For freight brokers, he noted, higher rates without sufficient volume to offset costs will further compress profit margins. While brokers could previously offset lower margins with exceptionally high volumes during COVID peaks or ELD implementation periods, current market conditions create significant pressure.
Carriers' Dilemma: Opportunity Meets Challenge
Adamo suggests that lower volumes with slightly higher rates present both opportunities and challenges for carriers. While the overall market shrinks, carriers securing higher rates may see improved profitability. However, he cautions this situation may prove temporary as markets eventually recognize no fundamental transformation has occurred.
This dynamic may particularly impact backhaul lanes—especially long-haul routes returning from primary shipping locations. Adamo highlights a strong negative correlation between average per-mile rates and resulting percentage changes, meaning lower-rate lanes experience greater percentage increases.
"From a lane imbalance perspective, some routes see rate increases while others decline," Adamo emphasized. "This pattern typically doesn't occur during periods of substantial overall volume growth or widespread macroeconomic pressure—neither of which describes our current environment."
Peak Season Outlook: Tempered Expectations
When asked about peak season prospects, Adamo expressed limited optimism, noting September's port volumes declined following August's strong performance.
"I anticipate soft volumes, though some carriers—particularly those operating 5-10 trucks—may see modest rate improvements, potentially 20% on backhaul lanes," he said. "This could help them through Q4. While beneficial for some carriers, we'll likely continue seeing carrier exits until the market finds equilibrium. September saw approximately 1,200 motor carrier authorities revoked—matching January's levels when market adjustments typically eliminate carriers, creating the year's largest net reductions. This suggests continued attrition until the market stabilizes."
Market Adjustments and Long-Term Trends
Adamo's analysis indicates the U.S. trucking market is undergoing a complex adjustment period. September's rate increases stem not from robust demand but from freight imbalances and capacity fluctuations. This "rates up, volume down" phenomenon suggests underlying market issues requiring industry attention.
For brokers, margin compression creates operational pressures. For carriers, while some benefit from higher rates, the shrinking overall market intensifies competition. Additionally, market adjustments may disproportionately affect backhaul lanes, requiring carriers to monitor imbalances closely and adapt strategies accordingly.
Looking ahead, Adamo's peak season expectations remain cautious, with declining port volumes suggesting continued softness. He anticipates ongoing market corrections with carrier exits persisting until equilibrium returns.