Introduction
September typically marks the prelude to peak season in the U.S. trucking market. Yet 2023 brought an unusual phenomenon: declining freight volumes coupled with rising rates—a deviation from seasonal norms that has drawn industry-wide attention. This analysis examines DAT's Truckload Volume Index (TVI) September report to uncover the structural factors driving this trend and project future market directions.
Part I: Decoding DAT's September TVI Report
The DAT Freight and Analytics TVI report serves as a critical barometer of spot market activity, tracking monthly load postings across three equipment types:
1.1 Methodology
Indexed to a 2015 baseline (100), the TVI undergoes continuous standardization to ensure data integrity across three segments: dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed.
1.2 Segment Breakdown
Dry Van (Consumer Goods): Volume index fell 3% monthly to 234, with spot rates edging up $0.02 to $2.05/mile. Contract rates held at $2.42/mile (-0.5% annually), reflecting shippers' pricing power in an oversupplied market.
Reefer (Perishables): Volume dropped 7% monthly (184 index) while spot rates gained $0.03 to $2.44/mile. The steeper decline suggests agricultural seasonality impacts.
Flatbed (Industrial): Defied trends with 1% monthly growth (307 index), though contract rates dipped $0.02 to $3.06/mile—indicating industrial demand resilience amid broader softening.
1.3 The Volume-Rate Paradox
This counterintuitive dynamic stems from:
- Lane Imbalances: Geographic demand disparities created pockets of tight capacity
- Capacity Rationalization: Pandemic-era fleet expansions collided with moderating demand
Part II: Structural Drivers
2.1 Macroeconomic Headwinds
Persistent inflation eroded consumer purchasing power, particularly affecting van segments. Rising interest rates simultaneously dampened industrial activity.
2.2 Industry Consolidation
September saw approximately 1,200 carrier exits—matching typical January attrition levels—as smaller operators struggled amid compressed margins.
2.3 Operational Pressures
While diesel prices moderated, equipment and labor costs maintained upward pressure on carrier break-even points.
Part III: Lane-Specific Dynamics
Backhaul lanes (return trips) bore disproportionate impact versus primary headhaul routes. This bifurcation reflects:
- Weaker backhaul demand sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions
- Shippers prioritizing core lane coverage
Part IV: Peak Season Outlook
With port volumes softening after August's surge, expectations remain muted. Smaller fleets (5-10 trucks) may find niche opportunities through:
- Backhaul lane optimization (potential 20% gains)
- Local market specialization
Part V: Long-Term Structural Shifts
5.1 Demand-Side Pressures
Inventory destocking cycles and e-commerce fulfillment changes continue reshaping freight patterns.
5.2 Fuel Volatility
Geopolitical risks and OPEC+ supply management sustain price unpredictability.
5.3 Contract-Spot Divergence
Widening spreads between contract and spot rates signal shifting negotiation leverage.
Part VI: Strategic Recommendations
6.1 Data-Driven Decision Making
Implement real-time market monitoring through platforms like DAT iQ to identify emerging opportunities.
6.2 Operational Efficiency
Prioritize:
- Route optimization technologies
- Fuel management programs
- Preventive maintenance regimes
6.3 Risk Mitigation
Diversify through:
- Fuel hedging strategies
- Multi-carrier partnerships
- Comprehensive insurance coverage
6.4 Service Differentiation
Develop value-added offerings like temperature monitoring or expedited services to command premium pricing.
Conclusion
September's anomaly reflects deeper market rebalancing. Successful navigation will require carriers to blend operational discipline with strategic flexibility—leveraging data insights while maintaining cost vigilance during this transitional phase.