The U.S. trucking freight market exhibited unusual patterns in September, presenting analysts with a complex puzzle. Following August's decline in both volume and rates, September saw capacity reductions accompanied by modest rate increases—raising questions about whether this represents a temporary rebound or early signals of the traditional peak season.
DAT Truckload Volume Index: The Market's Compass
Understanding freight market dynamics begins with the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), published by DAT Freight and Analytics. This crucial benchmark tracks monthly freight volume changes for dry vans, refrigerated trailers, and flatbeds, using January 2015 as its baseline (100). Values above 100 indicate increased activity compared to the baseline period.
The index undergoes monthly adjustments to incorporate new data sources, functioning as a continuously updated map of real-time market conditions. This methodology ensures its reliability for tracking industry trends.
September Market Analysis: Key Metrics
September's performance revealed divergent trends across equipment types:
Volume Changes (TVI)
- Dry Van: Index at 234, down 3% month-over-month and 2% year-over-year
- Refrigerated: Index at 184, down 7% monthly but up 2% annually
- Flatbed: Index at 307, up 1% monthly and 9% annually
Spot Rates (Including Fuel Surcharges)
- Dry Van: $2.05/mile (+$0.02)
- Refrigerated: $2.44/mile (+$0.03)
- Flatbed: $2.50/mile (+$0.01)
Contract Rates
- Dry Van: $2.42/mile (flat monthly, down 0.5% annually)
- Refrigerated: $2.74/mile (+$0.02 monthly, flat annually)
- Flatbed: $3.06/mile (-$0.02 monthly, down 0.8% annually)
The Rate-Volume Paradox
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo characterizes the rate increases as concerning rather than encouraging. "This isn't demand-driven growth," he explains. "The pricing uptick reflects freight imbalances and capacity fluctuations rather than systemic market improvement."
Adamo compares the situation to inflationary pressures without corresponding wage growth—a scenario that squeezes broker margins already at cyclical lows. For carriers, the picture remains mixed: reduced volumes constrain opportunities while selective rate improvements provide limited relief.
Market Mechanics: Understanding the Disconnect
Several factors contribute to the counterintuitive rate-volume relationship:
- Freight Imbalance: Empty backhaul miles create pricing pressure on primary lanes
- Capacity Shifts: Carrier exits (net loss of 1,200 interstate authorities in September) tighten available equipment
- Asymmetric Impact: Low-rate lanes show disproportionate increases versus high-rate corridors
Peak Season Outlook: Cautious Pessimism
Adamo anticipates challenging conditions ahead, citing September's port volume decline following August's surge. While some small carriers (5-10 truck fleets) may see 20% backhaul rate improvements, the analyst expects continued carrier attrition until market equilibrium establishes.
"We're likely to see more carriers exit before the market finds its footing," Adamo notes. "The September carrier authority cancellations match January's historically high attrition levels—not a positive indicator for near-term recovery."
Strategic Considerations for Market Participants
For Carriers
- Prioritize lane optimization to minimize empty miles
- Focus on contract stability versus spot market volatility
- Monitor equipment maintenance costs amid rising operational expenses
For Shippers
- Expect continued rate pressure on primary lanes
- Build flexibility into procurement strategies
- Strengthen carrier relationships to ensure capacity access
Long-Term Market Drivers
Structural factors continue shaping the trucking landscape:
- Persistent driver shortages limiting capacity growth
- Regulatory pressures increasing equipment costs
- Infrastructure constraints elevating operational inefficiencies
- Seasonal demand patterns creating temporary imbalances
As the market navigates these complex dynamics, participants must balance short-term adaptation with long-term strategic planning. The coming months will test the industry's resilience amid economic uncertainty and shifting supply chain requirements.