The U.S. trucking market presented a paradoxical picture in September, with freight volumes declining while spot rates showed modest increases across most equipment types, according to the latest DAT Freight and Analytics report.
Key Market Indicators
The DAT Freight Index, which standardizes data against a January 2015 baseline (set at 100), revealed significant variations across equipment types:
Dry Van Sector
The dry van freight index stood at 234, marking a 3% month-over-month decline and a 2% year-over-year decrease. This suggests weakening demand in the general freight segment.
Refrigerated Transport
Reefer volumes showed more pronounced weakness, with the index at 184 - a 7% monthly drop, though still maintaining a 2% annual gain. The mixed performance indicates potential volatility in perishable goods transportation.
Flatbed Market
Flatbed emerged as the strongest performer, with its index reaching 307 - up 1% from August and showing a robust 9% year-over-year increase. This growth suggests continued strength in construction and industrial shipments.
Rate Dynamics
Despite falling volumes, national average spot rates edged higher across all equipment categories:
- Dry van rates: $2.05 per mile (+$0.02)
- Reefer rates: $2.44 per mile (+$0.03)
- Flatbed rates: $2.50 per mile (+$0.01)
Linehaul rates (excluding fuel surcharges) followed similar patterns, with dry van at $1.63/mile (+$0.02), reefer at $1.99/mile (+$0.03), and flatbed at $2.00/mile (+$0.01).
Contract Market Contrast
While spot markets showed resilience, contract rates generally softened:
- Dry van contract rates held at $2.42/mile (flat monthly, down $0.50 annually)
- Reefer contracts saw minimal gains at $2.74/mile (+$0.02 monthly, flat annually)
- Flatbed contracts declined to $3.06/mile (-$0.02 monthly, -$0.80 annually)
Market Interpretation
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo cautioned that September's rate increases weren't demand-driven. "This resembles inflation without wage growth - problematic for brokers who rely on volume to offset thin margins," he noted.
Adamo observed that capacity imbalances rather than freight growth drove the pricing changes, particularly affecting backhaul lanes more than primary routes. "Low-rate lanes are seeing bigger percentage gains, which isn't characteristic of systemic market improvement," he explained.
The analyst expressed concern about traditional peak season prospects, citing declining port volumes after a strong August. "We're seeing carrier exits accelerate, with approximately 1,200 interstate carrier authorities revoked in September - matching January's typical purge levels," Adamo warned.
Strategic Considerations
Industry participants should consider several factors when navigating current market conditions:
Operational Efficiency
With costs rising and volumes uncertain, optimizing routes, improving fuel efficiency, and maximizing equipment utilization become critical for maintaining profitability.
Market Diversification
The flatbed market's relative strength suggests opportunities for carriers with equipment flexibility, while reefer operators may need to explore niche opportunities.
Technology Adoption
Digital tools for load matching, route optimization, and real-time tracking can help mitigate margin pressures in volatile markets.
Risk Management
Given economic uncertainties, maintaining strong cash reserves and carefully evaluating contractual commitments becomes essential.
Looking Ahead
The trucking market enters the traditional fourth-quarter peak season with mixed signals. While some carriers may benefit from backhaul rate improvements, broader market fundamentals suggest continued challenges. Industry participants should prepare for potential volatility by maintaining operational flexibility and closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators that could affect freight demand.