As logistics managers wrap up year-end inventories, new market challenges emerge. Post-holiday restocking, tariff policy shifts, and severe weather patterns have created a complex landscape for January's trucking freight market. The latest DAT Freight & Analytics Truckload Volume Index provides clarity on whether the industry truly experienced a "strong start" to the new year.
Understanding the DAT Truckload Volume Index
The DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) serves as a barometer for the freight market, tracking monthly changes in truckload shipments to reflect supply-demand dynamics. Using January 2015 as its baseline (index value = 100), the index monitors three primary truck types:
- Dry vans (standard enclosed trailers)
- Reefers (refrigerated trailers)
- Flatbeds (open-platform trailers)
January Market Performance: Across-the-Board Growth
January's TVI showed consistent growth across all segments:
- Dry Van TVI: 277 (up 6% month-over-month, 8% year-over-year) - marking 10 consecutive months of annual growth
- Reefer TVI: 237 (up 7% MoM, 13% YoY) - reflecting strong demand for temperature-sensitive goods
- Flatbed TVI: 256 (up 8% MoM, 6% YoY) - suggesting potential infrastructure activity rebound
Spot Market Rates Follow Suit
Rising volumes translated to higher spot market rates nationwide:
- Dry vans: $2.16/mile (+$0.04)
- Reefers: $2.55/mile (+$0.08)
- Flatbeds: $2.44/mile (+$0.05)
DAT analysts attribute part of this increase to carriers offsetting higher diesel costs, which rose $0.14/gallon to $3.63. Even when excluding fuel surcharges (linehaul rates), the upward trend persists:
- Dry vans: $1.76/mile (+$0.02)
- Reefers: $2.12/mile (+$0.06)
- Flatbeds: $1.96/mile (+$0.02)
Contract Rates Show Mixed Signals
While spot rates climbed uniformly, contract rates presented a more nuanced picture:
- Dry vans: $2.41/mile (+$0.02 MoM, -$0.03 YoY)
- Reefers: $2.76/mile (+$0.02 MoM, -$0.10 YoY)
- Flatbeds: $3.07/mile (+$0.01 MoM, -$0.01 YoY)
This divergence suggests shippers retain stronger negotiating power in long-term contracts despite current market tightness.
Key Market Drivers
DAT identifies three primary factors behind January's freight surge:
- Post-holiday inventory replenishment following peak consumer demand
- Anticipatory shipping ahead of potential tariff increases
- Weather disruptions creating demand for flexible capacity
Analyst Perspective
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo describes January's performance as "front-loaded enthusiasm." Early-month optimism gave way to normalization, with volumes and rates eventually aligning with historical patterns. Adamo notes particular uncertainty around Chinese imports due to fluctuating trade policies, creating what he calls "nervous money" behavior among shippers balancing inventory costs against potential tariff impacts.
Adamo advises shippers to closely monitor Chinese shipment volumes during current contract negotiations, where many are seeing 5-7% rate increases compared to 2023 agreements.
Market Outlook
While January showed promising momentum, analysts caution this may represent temporary factors rather than sustained growth. The market remains sensitive to:
- Regional economic variations
- Seasonal demand fluctuations
- Macroeconomic conditions
- Technological advancements
- Regulatory changes
Industry participants are advised to leverage tools like the DAT TVI for route optimization, capacity planning, and rate forecasting while remaining cognizant of its limitations as a single data point in a complex ecosystem.