The U.S. industrial real estate market, once dominated by e-commerce giants and traditional retailers, is undergoing a transformative shift. According to a new report from CBRE, the global leader in commercial real estate services and investment, third-party logistics (3PL) providers emerged as the dominant force in leasing activity during the first half of 2025, signing more large industrial space leases than both retail and e-commerce companies combined.
The Rise of 3PL: A New Market Leader
CBRE's data reveals that 3PL firms signed 38 leases for industrial spaces exceeding 100,000 square feet during the first six months of 2025, totaling 28.9 million square feet (MSF). This represents significant growth from the same period last year when 3PLs signed 28 leases. More strikingly, 3PL activity dwarfed both traditional retail/wholesale tenants (28 leases totaling 21.4 MSF) and e-commerce companies (just 7 leases for 4.7 MSF). The contrast is particularly stark when compared to last year's e-commerce leasing activity of 31 deals for 13.2 MSF.
E-Commerce Pullback: Strategic Realignment
The dramatic decline in e-commerce leasing doesn't signal sector weakness but rather reflects strategic reassessment. After years of aggressive expansion, online retailers are prioritizing operational efficiency over warehouse square footage. This maturation phase sees companies optimizing supply chains rather than pursuing physical growth, focusing on sustainable operations and cost management.
Mega-Warehouse Demand Cools
CBRE defines "mega-warehouses" as facilities exceeding 1 million square feet. The first half of 2025 saw just 13 such leases (15.5 MSF), down sharply from 31 deals (34.5 MSF) in 2024. Rising rents and economic uncertainty have prompted tenants to favor smaller spaces and more conservative expansion strategies.
Regional Hotspots Emerge
Southern California's Inland Empire led leasing activity with 14 deals (9.8 MSF), followed by Pennsylvania's I-78/I-81 corridor (9 leases, 6.3 MSF) and Dallas-Fort Worth (7 leases, 5.8 MSF). These logistics hubs continue attracting tenants with their robust infrastructure, strategic locations, and skilled labor pools.
Expert Analysis: The Outsourcing Advantage
James Breeze, CBRE's Global Head of Industrial & Retail Research, attributes 3PL growth to retailers increasingly outsourcing distribution: "This model reduces capital expenditures, provides inventory flexibility, and lets companies focus on core competencies rather than supply chain management."
Future Outlook: Continued Expansion
Breeze anticipates sustained 3PL growth as distribution becomes more specialized and technology-dependent. "We expect 3PLs to dominate million-square-foot leases," he noted, referencing June's data where 6 of 13 mega-leases went to logistics providers. The trend reflects how 3PLs buffer companies against economic volatility while offering cost-effective solutions.
Symbiotic Relationship
The e-commerce decline and 3PL surge aren't contradictory but complementary. As Breeze explains, "E-commerce companies are outsourcing distribution to specialized providers while focusing on product development and customer experience." This division of labor creates efficiencies for both parties.
Strategic Implications
The CBRE report underscores a fundamental market realignment. For businesses, adapting to this 3PL-driven landscape means carefully evaluating partnerships and operational models. In industrial real estate, the shift favors properties near transportation hubs with modern amenities suited for logistics operations.