New English Rules for Truckers May Raise Freight Costs

The US trucking industry faces increasingly stringent English language proficiency requirements. This paper analyzes the potential impact of this policy on trucking capacity and, using market data, uncovers the true drivers behind rising freight rates. While the short-term impact of the new English regulations on freight rates may be limited, the long-term effects on the industry landscape remain to be seen. The analysis considers both immediate and future implications of the policy shift.
New English Rules for Truckers May Raise Freight Costs

The U.S. trucking industry is facing a new challenge as English language proficiency requirements for commercial drivers become increasingly stringent. While some view this as a potential catalyst for rising freight rates, others argue it's merely a distraction from broader market weaknesses. This article examines the real impact of these regulatory changes.

Policy Tightening: English as the New Industry Standard

Since the Trump administration, the U.S. government has progressively strengthened English language requirements for truck drivers, particularly targeting non-native speakers. Key measures include:

  • H-2B Visa Suspension: The State Department halted new H-2B visa issuances for commercial truck drivers, significantly limiting foreign driver recruitment.
  • Enhanced English Testing: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced stricter enforcement of English proficiency standards for commercial vehicle operators.

The American Trucking Associations (ATA) endorsed these measures, with CEO Chris Spear emphasizing that English competency is essential for road safety, enabling drivers to comprehend road signs, communicate with law enforcement, and understand safety protocols.

Market Impact: Minimal Effect on Capacity

Despite initial concerns, analysis suggests the English requirements have had limited influence on overall trucking capacity. With approximately 2.1 million active commercial driver's license (CDL) holders in the U.S., estimates indicate only about 0.78% of drivers might be affected annually.

Baird analyst Daniel Moore noted that while the visa suspension may tighten labor supply, its market impact appears marginal. Current data shows spot rates for dry vans remain near 2023 lows, with temporary June-July gains erased by August.

Regulatory Enforcement: Immediate Shutdowns for Violations

The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) revised its guidelines to mandate out-of-service (OOS) orders for English proficiency violations. Since implementation in late June:

  • Weekly inspections increased 11.6% to 31,246
  • OOS rates for English violations surged from 0.1% to 25.7%
  • Projected annual OOS orders: ~16,901 drivers

While localized disruptions occurred near border regions like Texas, national capacity remains largely unaffected.

Market Reality: Weak Demand Drives Rates

Contrary to expectations, the English requirements haven't significantly altered pricing dynamics. DAT's dry van spot rates continue to languish near multi-year lows, suggesting:

  • Freight rate fluctuations are demand-driven, not supply-constrained
  • Tariff-related inventory buildups created artificial demand spikes earlier in 2023
  • Current market weakness reflects broader economic conditions

Long-Term Outlook

The full impact of English proficiency enforcement may take years to materialize as carriers gradually adjust hiring practices. Industry observers recommend focusing on:

  • Macroeconomic and trade policy monitoring
  • Operational efficiency improvements
  • Driver training programs
  • Technology adoption for smarter fleet management

Ultimately, while English proficiency standards enhance safety, they appear unlikely to significantly alter market fundamentals in the near term. The trucking industry's challenges remain rooted in demand weakness rather than regulatory-driven capacity constraints.