American retailers could face another major supply chain challenge this fall if the standoff between dockworkers and employers continues. With a potential strike looming, merchants are scrambling to reroute cargo to West Coast ports to avoid potential chaos.
According to the latest Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, U.S. imports in August are expected to surge dramatically—potentially nearing record levels—as shippers divert cargo from East and Gulf Coast ports where labor disruptions may occur.
Import Volumes Projected to Spike
The surveyed ports include Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Miami, Jacksonville, and Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
"Retailers are concerned about the potential for a strike at East and Gulf Coast ports as contract negotiations remain unresolved," said Jonathan Gold, NRF's Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. "Many have taken preventive measures including moving up shipments and diverting cargo to West Coast ports. We urge both parties to resolve this before the current contract expires on September 30."
The report notes that International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) negotiations have broken down with no progress made. The ILA has warned it will strike if no agreement is reached by September 30.
Key Import Projections
Port Tracker forecasts include:
- July: 2.34 million TEUs (up 22.1% year-over-year), potentially the highest monthly volume since May 2022
- August: 2.34 million TEUs (up 19.2%)
- September: 2.16 million TEUs (up 6.5%)
- October: 2.09 million TEUs (up 1.7%)
- November: 1.98 million TEUs (down 4.4%)
- December: 1.94 million TEUs (up 3.5%)
If realized, 2024's total volume would reach 24.9 million TEUs—a 12.1% increase over 2023. Notably, West Coast ports now account for over 50% of tracked cargo for the first time in three years as importers shift shipments to avoid potential East Coast disruptions.
Additional Supply Chain Pressures
The report highlights that Red Sea shipping attacks have compounded challenges, with vessel reroutings increasing transit times and costs while causing equipment shortages and congestion at Asian ports.
NRF projects 2024 retail sales (excluding auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants) will grow 2.5%-3.5% over 2023. June's import volume of 2.16 million TEUs marked a 3.6% monthly increase and 17.7% annual gain, bringing first-half 2024 totals to 12.1 million TEUs—up 15% year-over-year.
"We've seen strong import growth over the past year alongside retail sales gains and steady industrial investment," said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. "Importers continue building inventories while shifting cargo westward as insurance against potential labor disruptions."