WASHINGTON – As the holiday shopping season approaches, U.S. retailers are closely monitoring global supply chain dynamics. Despite recent brief strikes at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, the latest Port Tracker report forecasts continued growth in U.S. imports. However, these labor disruptions have highlighted vulnerabilities in supply chains, raising concerns about labor relations, port congestion, and West Coast port capacity.
Strike Fallout: Temporary Impact, Lasting Concerns
When the six-year labor contract between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) expired in late September, a three-day strike erupted across 36 ports from Maine to Texas. The work stoppage quickly disrupted shipping operations along the East and Gulf Coasts, creating uncertainty for retailers, manufacturers, and consumers.
The ILA represents dockworkers at East and Gulf Coast ports, while USMX represents shipping companies and terminal operators. Their collective bargaining agreement covers critical issues including wages, benefits, and working conditions. Disagreements over wage increases led to the strike action.
During the strike, port operations were severely affected, with cargo handling suspended and vessels delayed. Retailers feared holiday merchandise delays, manufacturers worried about raw material shortages, and consumers anticipated potential price increases that might reduce spending.
The quick resolution came when ILA and USMX reached a temporary agreement on wage increases, ending the strike after three days. While this brought relief to retailers, consumers, and the broader economy, the incident served as a warning about how labor relations can impact port operations.
Gold noted that retailers who pre-stocked inventory or diverted cargo to West Coast ports would face additional storage and transportation costs. He urged both parties to negotiate in good faith to reach a long-term agreement before the temporary extension expires in mid-January.
Behind the Numbers: Import Volume and Retail Connections
The Port Tracker report, jointly produced by NRF and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, analyzes cargo volume at major U.S. ports to reveal the current state of import activity. Importantly, import volume doesn't directly correlate with retail sales or employment figures.
The report's authors explain they only count containers entering the U.S., without assessing merchandise value. Nevertheless, import levels serve as a key indicator of retailer expectations, as businesses typically adjust orders based on sales forecasts.
Latest data shows August imports at major ports reached 2.34 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), up 19.3% year-over-year and 0.9% month-over-month. This marks the highest monthly volume since May 2022's record 2.4 million TEUs, though final numbers remain pending for New York/New Jersey and Miami ports.
Looking Ahead: Continued Growth at Slower Pace
Port Tracker projections for coming months include:
- September: 2.29 million TEUs (+12.9% YoY)
- October: 2.12 million TEUs (+3.1%)
- November: 1.91 million TEUs (+0.9%)
- December: 1.88 million TEUs (-0.2%)
If accurate, 2024's total imports would reach 24.9 million TEUs, a 12.1% annual increase. Early 2025 estimates suggest 1.98 million TEUs in January (+0.8%) followed by 1.74 million in February (-11.2%), primarily due to Asian factory closures during Lunar New Year.
Expert Analysis: Contingency Planning and West Coast Shifts
Hackett emphasized the importance of ILA and USMX reaching a final agreement by mid-January. He raised a critical question about whether domestic transport networks could efficiently move goods from West to East Coast while returning empty containers promptly.
The Port of Los Angeles anticipates a 35% week-over-week container volume increase during October 13-19, with year-over-year growth reaching 71% – approaching May 2021's supply chain crisis peak levels.
Building Supply Chain Resilience
The brief strike demonstrated the importance of supply chain resilience – the ability to quickly adapt and recover from disruptions. Strategies like advanced inventory planning, diversified sourcing, and optimized shipping routes can strengthen this capacity.
Equally crucial is labor-management cooperation. Constructive dialogue and fair agreements help prevent work stoppages that jeopardize port operations and supply chain stability.
Future Challenges in a Changing Landscape
Looking forward, global trade faces multiple uncertainties including geopolitical risks, climate change impacts, and technological transformations. Businesses must enhance adaptability and innovation to maintain competitiveness, with resilient supply chains serving as a critical advantage.