Despite multiple challenges including elections, hurricanes, and labor disputes, recent improvements in freight volume and capacity, coupled with gradually recovering consumer confidence, have injected cautious optimism into the market. While it may be premature to declare that the market has bottomed out, various indicators suggest that the dawn of recovery may be approaching.
Surge in Imports: A Mix of Short-Term Factors and Long-Term Trends
The sustained strong growth in U.S. imports presents a noteworthy signal. Since 2024, import volumes have maintained rapid growth momentum. Industry analysts attribute this to multiple converging factors rather than any single cause. First, labor issues at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, including a brief strike in early October and the potential for another in mid-January, have prompted shippers to stock up early. Second, uncertainty surrounding the tariff policies of the incoming Trump administration has led shippers to expedite shipments before potential policy changes.
Additionally, robust consumer spending and confidence indices, along with macroeconomic factors like recent interest rate cuts and slowing inflation, have provided support for import growth. While the road to recovery remains long, these positive signals deserve attention.
Trucking: A Slow but Steady Rebound
Positive news also emerges from ground transportation. The latest monthly Truck Tonnage Index report from the American Trucking Associations (ATA) shows seasonally adjusted truck tonnage increased 1.2% in October compared to September. The unadjusted index stood at 121.3, marking a significant 8.6% increase from September.
ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello noted that truck tonnage is slowly but steadily recovering from its January low this year. "Since bottoming in January, total tonnage has grown 3%, with three of the past four months showing month-over-month gains," Costello observed. "There's no question the freight market has improved this year, albeit gradually."
Given that trucking accounts for 72.6% of U.S. domestic freight volume, covering manufacturing and retail products, Costello's optimistic assessment carries substantial weight.
Intermodal: Consumer Spending Meets Policy Factors
Intermodal transportation also shows positive momentum. According to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), total intermodal volume grew 8.9% year-over-year in October, with cumulative growth reaching 8.8% for the first ten months of the year. While strong intermodal volumes typically reflect robust consumer spending, tariff policies and port labor issues have also influenced the data.
Rail Transport: Durable Goods Consumption Fuels Growth
The rail sector similarly reports encouraging developments. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) noted in its monthly Rail Time Indicators report that its Freight Rail Index (FRI) increased 3.5% year-over-year in October. This index tracks the most economically sensitive rail-carried commodities, including U.S. carload commodities and intermodal containers and trailers.
AAR Chief Economist Rand Ghayad explained that after the pandemic, consumers initially shifted spending toward services like dining and travel, leading to decreased durable goods consumption that affected intermodal volumes. "Part of the intermodal slowdown was due to consumers shifting spending from goods to services," Ghayad said. "But from summer 2023 through early 2024, this pattern reversed as consumers returned to goods purchases, a trend that continues today. This is the real driver behind intermodal's strong performance. We expect this momentum to continue as inflation eases and consumer incomes rise."
Early Signs of Recovery, but Caution Remains
Beyond these examples, other indicators suggest the freight market outlook appears more optimistic than in recent periods. Many industry professionals believe the freight recession has bottomed out. While it may be too early to declare a full recovery, especially given lingering uncertainties, these positive developments warrant attention and appreciation. As Thanksgiving approaches, these encouraging signs offer reasons for gratitude in the freight industry.